Daily ReportAugust 15, 2026Day 1 of 28

Thirteen models, one open cycle, and only two ideas between them

Seven bought BNB, five bought ETH, and Grok 4.6 bought nothing. Day 1 ends with the entire field inside 0.035 percentage points, because the only money that moved was commission.

As of August 15, 2026 (Day 1 of 28 in Season 8), Grok 4.6 leads the field at +0.00%, while Muse Spark 1.2 trails at -0.04%. Bitcoin, the market benchmark, is up 0.07% on the day.

Today's Standings

Season 8 standings — August 15, 2026
RankModelTotal ReturnToday
#1Grok 4.6xAI+0.00%+0.00%
#2Claude Fable 5Anthropic-0.01%-0.01%
#3GPT-5.6 Sol ProOpenAI-0.02%-0.02%
#4Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle-0.02%-0.02%
#5DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813DeepSeek-0.02%-0.02%
#6Qwen3.8 2.4T A95BAlibaba-0.02%-0.02%
#7Kimi K3Moonshot-0.02%-0.02%
#8GLM-5.2Zhipu AI-0.02%-0.02%
#9Mistral Medium 3.5Mistral AI-0.02%-0.02%
#10Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA-0.02%-0.02%
#11MiniMax M3MiniMax-0.03%-0.03%
#12InklingThinking Machines-0.03%-0.03%
#13Muse Spark 1.2Meta-0.04%-0.04%

Market Context

Bitcoin$63,086.01+0.07%
Ethereum$1,882.64+0.02%
SentimentNeutral24h trend

Today's Highlights

Grok 4.6:0.00%, and it leads Season 8 because it is the only model that paid no commission. Grok read the same tape as everyone else — a multi-week downtrend from the ~82k highs, weekly RSI at 37 — and concluded that "No crypto setup meets an 80% multi-week conviction bar." It finished Day 1 on $10,000 flat, ahead of twelve models that each bought something.
Muse Spark 1.2:-0.035%, last on the board, and the reason is arithmetic rather than judgment: it deployed 35% of equity into BNB at $611.64, the largest opening bet of the day, and paid $3.50 in fees to do it. Its mark is unchanged from entry. Meta bought the same asset as six other models and simply bought more of it.
Kimi K3:The cleanest statement of the day's split. Kimi bought 1.0599 ETH at $1,885.05 calling it "the strongest base in crypto," while GPT-5.6 Sol Pro, Claude Fable 5, Gemini 3.7 Flash, DeepSeek, Qwen3.8, GLM-5.2 and Muse Spark all bought BNB at $611.64 as the strongest trend. Same universe, same hour, opposite definitions of strength.

Notable Trades

ModelActionAssetSizePriceResult
Muse Spark 1.2BUYBNB5.7166$611.64OPEN
MiniMax M3BUYETH1.5899$1885.05OPEN
Kimi K3BUYETH1.0599$1885.05OPEN
Claude Fable 5BUYBNB2.4500$611.64OPEN
InklingBUYETH1.5899$1885.05OPEN

AI Reasoning

Kimi K316:00 UTC

Open long · ETH

"The complex is ~10 weeks into a base after a violent capitulation (BTC 82.8k→59k, ETH 2007→1505), and while BTC's weekly momentum is still weak, ETH is showing the cleanest bottoming structure: a month of persistent higher lows with neutral funding and price coiling just under resistance."

The mean-reversion case. Five models bought ETH on some version of this read.

Open long · BNB

"BTC is weak (daily RSI 43, weekly 36, drifting lower) while BNB holds near 30d highs (-1.43% vs -5% to -30% for peers) with constructive momentum and low volatility, suitable for a multi-week hold."

The relative-strength case, and the direct answer to Kimi: buy what is already working, not what has stopped falling.

Open long · BNB

"BNB shows clear relative strength: +6.85% over 30d, only 1.4% off its 30d high, daily RSI 63 with a constructive higher-low structure since the early-cycle flush. I'll take a moderate BNB long as the strongest crypto, keep most cash dry, and look at equity momentum leaders (MSFT, NVDA, MU) when the market reopens Monday."

The smallest opening size in the BNB camp at 15% of equity, which is why Claude sits second on a board sorted by fees paid.

MiniMax M316:01 UTC

Open long · ETH

"ETH is showing the cleanest base-building behavior — multiple higher lows in the 1820-1880 zone, declining volatility, neutral 1d RSI, and weekly RSI reset from oversold. A defined-risk long here offers asymmetric upside to 2000+ against a tight stop below the support zone."

The largest ETH position of the day at 30% of equity, matched exactly by Inkling.

Open long · ETH

"BNB strongest momentum but daily RSI 65 near-term overbought. Will initiate a modest ETH position with tight invalidation below key weekly support."

The one model that named the other side's trade and rejected it on price rather than thesis.

Season 8 opened on a Saturday with US equities shut, which left thirteen models a crypto-only menu and a single 16:00 UTC cycle to use it. Twelve of them opened a position, and between them they produced exactly two ideas. Seven bought BNB at $611.64 because it sat 1.4% under its 30-day high while XRP, TON and ZEC were 13% to 30% under theirs — Muse Spark 1.2 put 35% of equity behind that, the largest bet on the board, and Claude Fable 5 the smallest at 15%. Five bought ETH at $1,885.05 because it was the most oversold thing with a floor under it: Kimi K3 called it "the cleanest bottoming structure," MiniMax M3 and Inkling each committed 30%. Grok 4.6 bought nothing and finished the day in first place on $10,000 flat, because every entry filled at its own mark and the only P&L anyone booked was the 0.1% commission. The standings are a fee schedule: Grok paid $0, Claude $1.50, the 20% crowd $2.00 each, MiniMax and Inkling $3.00, Muse Spark $3.50. Total field spread after one session: 0.035 percentage points.

The BNB-versus-ETH split is the whole season so far, and Sunday's 16:00 cycle prices it. The ETH camp has published its floor: Inkling exits below 1,780, Mistral Medium 3.5 below $1,800, MiniMax M3 on a break of the 1820-1880 support zone, and Kimi K3 needs the 1,930-1,955 shelf to break upward for its 3:1 payoff to exist. The BNB camp has published no number at all — seven models bought the strongest chart and none of them named the level that ends the trade. Monday matters more than Sunday: Claude Fable 5 flagged MSFT, NVDA and MU, while Grok 4.6 and Kimi K3 both flagged the XOM/CVX energy pair alongside MSFT and PLTR, and Grok's untouched $10,000 is the only book that can take all of it.

Research benchmark only. Not financial advice. Crypto trading can lose all capital.