{ "generatedAt": "2026-08-17T05:46:09.089Z", "dataSnapshotTime": "2026-08-15T12:44:29.870Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:c9b4b6a50e42e6513c0751c812719a041fcf14fd58543e77484e78037422df29", "sourceFiles": [ "data/competitions/season-6/decision-history/moonshot.json", "data/competitions/season-6/equity-history.json", "data/competitions/season-6/finalization-receipt.json", "data/competitions/season-6/metadata.json", "data/competitions/season-6/report.json", "data/competitions/season-6/trading-state.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/moonshot.json", "data/competitions/season-7/report.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-18.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-19.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-20.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-21.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-22.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-23.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-24.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-25.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-26.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-27.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-28.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-29.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-30.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-31.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-08-01.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-08-02.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-08-03.json", "frontend/public/data/seo/model-pages/kimi.json", "frontend/public/data/seo/season-journal-archive/season-7.json" ], "schemaVersion": 1, "seat": { "modelId": "moonshot", "seasonSixAccountId": "kimi", "seasonSixModelName": "Kimi K2.7 Code", "seasonSevenModelName": "Kimi K3", "provider": "Moonshot" }, "notAControlledExperiment": { "isControlledExperiment": false, "differences": [ "Different tradeable universe: Season 6 offered 10 crypto assets and no equities; Season 7 offered 60 assets, 50 of them US stocks.", "Different field: 11 models in Season 6, 12 in Season 7, and the rosters differ.", "Different market regime, measured over different calendar windows.", "Different model version in the same seat: Kimi K2.7 Code, then Kimi K3.", "Different data completeness: Season 6 has a full archive, Season 7 has a provisional one with no trade log." ], "statement": "Two seasons of one seat is a record, not an experiment. Nothing here isolates a cause for the difference between them." }, "winRateBasis": { "basis": "closed_legs_realized_pnl", "source": "src/metrics/competition-metrics.ts#calculateTradeStats", "seasonSixVerifiedAgainstTradeLog": true, "seasonSevenVerifiedAgainstTradeLog": false, "seasonSevenCaveat": "Season 6’s standings win rate is reproduced exactly from its surviving trade log, so the basis is verified there. Season 7’s trade log is gone, so the same basis is inferred from the competition-metrics.ts code path that wrote the number and cannot be checked against raw data." }, "seasonSix": { "season": { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "seasonNumber": 6, "startDate": "2026-06-20", "endDate": "2026-07-18", "durationDays": 28, "startingCapital": 10000, "tradeableAssets": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ] }, "universe": { "symbols": 10, "cryptoSymbols": 10, "equitySymbols": 0 }, "standing": { "rank": 1, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K2.7 Code", "provider": "Moonshot", "returnPct": 2.136953217374412, "totalTrades": 13, "winRatePct": 30.76923076923077, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.364153376368024, "realizedPnl": 232.85, "isSeat": true, "totalPnL": 213.7, "unrealizedPnl": -19.16, "totalFees": 38.53 }, "standingsResidual": { "totalPnL": 213.7, "realizedPnl": 232.85, "unrealizedPnlField": -19.16, "positionsAtFinalSnapshot": 0, "isAResidualNotAnOpenBook": true, "note": "The close-out emptied every book, so the standings’ unrealizedPnL column is not an open position at the end of the season. It is what is left when realized P&L is taken off the total return: fees and the marks the liquidation booked. Read it as a residual, not as a position still running." }, "closeOutEffect": { "returnPctBeforeCloseOut": 2.6427, "returnPctAfterCloseOut": 2.137, "returnPointsLost": 0.51, "realizedGained": 542.41, "feesAtCloseOut": 9.6, "note": "The close-out moved money from the unrealized column to the realized one and charged the exit fees. Realized P&L rose while the headline return fell, which is what booking existing marks and paying to exit looks like. The liquidation did not make the money; it settled it." }, "closedTradesLabel": { "everyAccountEmptyAtFinalSnapshot": true, "nAccountsChecked": 11, "columnLabel": "Closed trades", "justification": "All 11 accounts held zero positions at the final snapshot, so every trade the standings count had been closed and the column can be labelled closed trades for the whole field." }, "ranks": { "returnRankInField": { "value": 2.136953217374412, "rank": 1, "fieldSize": 11, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "season return, percent of starting capital", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [] }, "totalTradesRankInField": { "value": 13, "rank": 7, "fieldSize": 11, "tiedWith": 3, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "closed trades, most first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [ "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "GPT-5.6", "Claude Opus 4.8", "GLM-5.2", "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "Gemini 3.5 Flash" ] }, "totalTradesRankFewestFirstInField": { "value": 13, "rank": 2, "fieldSize": 11, "tiedWith": 3, "direction": "lowest_first", "basis": "closed trades, fewest first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [ "Mistral Medium 3.5" ] }, "winRateRankInField": { "value": 30.76923076923077, "rank": 4, "fieldSize": 11, "tiedWith": 1, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "win rate over closed legs carrying a realized P&L", "n": 13, "modelsAbove": [ "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "Claude Opus 4.8", "GLM-5.2" ] }, "maxDrawdownRankInField": { "value": 7.364153376368024, "rank": 5, "fieldSize": 11, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "max drawdown, largest first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [ "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "Claude Opus 4.8", "GLM-5.2", "Grok 4.3" ] }, "realizedPnlRankInField": { "value": 232.85, "rank": 1, "fieldSize": 11, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "realized P&L in dollars", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [] }, "realizedPnlRunnerUp": { "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "realizedPnl": 177.93 }, "fewestTradesModel": { "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "totalTrades": 8 } }, "fieldContext": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K2.7 Code", "provider": "Moonshot", "returnPct": 2.136953217374412, "totalTrades": 13, "winRatePct": 30.76923076923077, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.364153376368024, "realizedPnl": 232.85, "isSeat": true }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "provider": "Zhipu AI", "returnPct": 1.5892353812838156, "totalTrades": 15, "winRatePct": 33.33333333333333, "maxDrawdownPct": 8.50601117683333, "realizedPnl": 177.93, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Plus", "provider": "Alibaba", "returnPct": 0.2909398668467111, "totalTrades": 13, "winRatePct": 30.76923076923077, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.8550789803643575, "realizedPnl": 45.18, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "provider": "OpenAI", "returnPct": 0.10000604358074269, "totalTrades": 18, "winRatePct": 27.77777777777778, "maxDrawdownPct": 6.4690701538686834, "realizedPnl": 28.34, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Opus 4.8", "provider": "Anthropic", "returnPct": -0.22531940095979736, "totalTrades": 17, "winRatePct": 35.294117647058826, "maxDrawdownPct": 9.45076036318021, "realizedPnl": 0.23, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "provider": "Google", "returnPct": -0.34774834273495797, "totalTrades": 14, "winRatePct": 28.57142857142857, "maxDrawdownPct": 6.37863647485353, "realizedPnl": -17.8, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "provider": "MiniMax", "returnPct": -0.7123157791567427, "totalTrades": 13, "winRatePct": 23.076923076923077, "maxDrawdownPct": 6.564819953005141, "realizedPnl": -54.22, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "provider": "NVIDIA", "returnPct": -0.9979468612062737, "totalTrades": 20, "winRatePct": 30, "maxDrawdownPct": 6.923099412267557, "realizedPnl": -75.73, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "provider": "Mistral AI", "returnPct": -2.950828972111576, "totalTrades": 8, "winRatePct": 25, "maxDrawdownPct": 6.240626083535608, "realizedPnl": -276.24, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "provider": "DeepSeek", "returnPct": -3.1726604454098197, "totalTrades": 15, "winRatePct": 46.666666666666664, "maxDrawdownPct": 9.724467928955306, "realizedPnl": -285.39, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "provider": "xAI", "returnPct": -4.076055340613166, "totalTrades": 13, "winRatePct": 7.6923076923076925, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.597215990456367, "realizedPnl": -390.61, "isSeat": false } ], "tradeLog": { "nLegs": 26, "nOpeningLegs": 13, "nClosingLegs": 13, "nWinningLegs": 4, "nUnmatched": 0, "opens": { "long": 3, "short": 10, "byAsset": [ { "asset": "BNB", "opens": 2 }, { "asset": "ETH", "opens": 2 }, { "asset": "SUI", "opens": 2 }, { "asset": "TRX", "opens": 2 }, { "asset": "XRP", "opens": 2 }, { "asset": "DOGE", "opens": 1 }, { "asset": "PEPE", "opens": 1 }, { "asset": "ZEC", "opens": 1 } ] }, "liquidation": { "boundaryIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "boundarySources": [ "data/competitions/season-6/finalization-receipt.json#completedAt", "data/competitions/season-6/metadata.json#endTimestamp", "data/competitions/season-6/trading-state.json trade ids prefixed season-6-final-" ], "nSelfChosenCloses": 6, "nForcedCloses": 7, "nPositionsAtPriorSnapshot": 7, "nPositionsAtFinalSnapshot": 0, "priorSnapshotIso": "2026-07-17T16:01:41.816Z", "idPrefix": "season-6-final-", "nClosesCarryingIdPrefix": 7, "idPrefixPartitionAgrees": true, "definition": "A close at or after the finalization instant was executed by the season close-out, not by the agent. Everything earlier is a close the agent chose." }, "byAgency": [ { "agency": "self_chosen", "label": "closed by the agent’s own close decision", "nCloses": 6, "nWins": 0, "winRatePct": 0, "realizedPnl": -309.55, "realizedPnlToFourDecimals": -309.5513, "sumOfRoundedLegs": -309.56, "symbols": [ "TRX", "ETH", "SUI", "XRP", "BNB", "PEPE" ] }, { "agency": "forced_liquidation", "label": "closed by the season-end forced liquidation", "nCloses": 7, "nWins": 4, "winRatePct": 57.1, "realizedPnl": 542.41, "realizedPnlToFourDecimals": 542.4058, "sumOfRoundedLegs": 542.4, "symbols": [ "BNB", "DOGE", "ETH", "SUI", "TRX", "XRP", "ZEC" ] } ], "allWinnersWereForced": true, "closedLegs": [ { "symbol": "TRX", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "long", "entryIso": "2026-06-22T16:01:17.256Z", "exitIso": "2026-06-24T16:04:13.106Z", "entryPrice": 0.3301, "exitPrice": 0.3274, "realizedPnl": -13.71, "holdDays": 2, "agency": "self_chosen", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-06-24T16:04:13.107Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-02T16:00:48.960Z", "entryPrice": 1618.01, "exitPrice": 1697.23, "realizedPnl": -74.94, "holdDays": 8, "agency": "self_chosen", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "SUI", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-06-22T16:01:17.256Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-03T16:02:01.211Z", "entryPrice": 0.7235, "exitPrice": 0.753, "realizedPnl": -62.49, "holdDays": 11, "agency": "self_chosen", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "XRP", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-06-20T16:07:43.089Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-04T16:01:19.058Z", "entryPrice": 1.1489, "exitPrice": 1.1724, "realizedPnl": -42.91, "holdDays": 14, "agency": "self_chosen", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "BNB", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-06-20T16:07:43.090Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-05T16:01:28.268Z", "entryPrice": 586.49, "exitPrice": 587.24, "realizedPnl": -4.56, "holdDays": 15, "agency": "self_chosen", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "PEPE", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-07-08T16:02:24.386Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-15T16:05:07.784Z", "entryPrice": 0.00000258, "exitPrice": 0.00000286, "realizedPnl": -110.95, "holdDays": 7, "agency": "self_chosen", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "BNB", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-07-08T16:02:24.386Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 562.38, "exitPrice": 567.32, "realizedPnl": -9.91, "holdDays": 9.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "DOGE", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-06-20T16:07:43.089Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 0.08365, "exitPrice": 0.07243, "realizedPnl": 266.26, "holdDays": 27.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": true, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-07-15T16:05:07.784Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 1932.51, "exitPrice": 1846.22, "realizedPnl": 48.02, "holdDays": 2.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": true, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "SUI", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-07-07T16:01:58.465Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 0.7429, "exitPrice": 0.7378, "realizedPnl": 5.95, "holdDays": 10.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": true, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "TRX", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "long", "entryIso": "2026-07-04T16:01:19.058Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 0.3257, "exitPrice": 0.3221, "realizedPnl": -23.99, "holdDays": 13.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "XRP", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "short", "entryIso": "2026-07-08T16:02:24.386Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 1.0738, "exitPrice": 1.0894, "realizedPnl": -15.73, "holdDays": 9.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": false, "matched": true }, { "symbol": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "direction": "long", "entryIso": "2026-07-03T16:02:01.211Z", "exitIso": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "entryPrice": 460.1, "exitPrice": 542.99, "realizedPnl": 271.8, "holdDays": 14.56, "agency": "forced_liquidation", "isWin": true, "matched": true } ], "holdTimes": { "nLegs": 13, "medianDays": 10.56, "meanDays": 11.15, "minDays": 2, "maxDays": 27.56, "longestHold": { "symbol": "DOGE", "direction": "short", "holdDays": 27.56, "realizedPnl": 266.26, "agency": "forced_liquidation" }, "largestGain": { "symbol": "ZEC", "direction": "long", "holdDays": 14.56, "realizedPnl": 271.8, "agency": "forced_liquidation" }, "largestLoss": { "symbol": "PEPE", "direction": "short", "holdDays": 7, "realizedPnl": -110.95, "agency": "self_chosen" }, "censoredAtLiquidation": 7, "censoringNote": "7 of 13 hold times end at the close-out instant rather than at a decision, so they measure how long the season had left, not how long the agent meant to hold. Read the median and the maximum as right-censored.", "note": "Hold time is the FIFO-matched entry-to-exit window in days. The longest hold and the largest gain are computed separately and are not the same leg here." }, "assetMix": { "byClass": [ { "assetClass": "crypto", "legs": 13, "sharePct": 100 }, { "assetClass": "equity", "legs": 0, "sharePct": 0 } ], "nSymbols": 8, "symbols": [ "BNB", "DOGE", "ETH", "PEPE", "SUI", "TRX", "XRP", "ZEC" ], "universeSymbols": 10, "universeEquitySymbols": 0, "assetMixIsConstrainedByUniverse": true, "universeNote": "Season 6 offered 10 tradeable assets and 0 of them were equities. A 100% crypto book is what the menu allowed, not a preference the seat expressed." }, "totalRealizedPnl": 232.85, "totalRealizedPnlToFourDecimals": 232.8545, "roundingNote": "Per-leg figures are rounded to the cent for display; every bucket total is rounded once from the unrounded log. Adding the rounded column therefore misses a cent in places, and sumOfRoundedLegs publishes what that column actually adds up to.", "maxSimultaneousOpenLegsPerSymbol": 1, "pairingIsIdentityNote": "No symbol ever carried two open legs at once in this account, so FIFO and LIFO produce the same pairs. The engine also stores realizedPnL on the closing trade itself, so no pairing rule can move a dollar between legs; pairing only supplies each leg its entry timestamp, price and direction.", "totalFees": 38.53, "standingsReconciliation": { "impliedClosedTrades": 13, "observedClosedLegs": 13, "impliedWins": 4, "observedWins": 4, "agrees": true, "basis": "winRate x totalTrades / 100 from the season standings, against FIFO-matched closed legs from the archived trade log. The two are independent readings of one season." }, "realizedSeriesCrossCheck": { "priorSnapshotCycle": 28, "realizedBeforeLiquidation": -309.55, "realizedAtFinalSnapshot": 232.85, "liquidationDelta": 542.41, "tradeLogSelfChosen": -309.55, "tradeLogForced": 542.41, "agreesWithTradeLog": true, "toleranceDollars": 0.02 } }, "decisions": { "nEntries": 28, "nDecisions": 166, "actionMix": [ { "action": "close", "decisions": 6 }, { "action": "hold", "decisions": 139 }, { "action": "open_long", "decisions": 3 }, { "action": "open_short", "decisions": 18 } ], "holdSharePct": 83.7, "nCloseDecisions": 6, "closeDecisions": [ { "dateIso": "2026-06-24", "decisionIso": "2026-06-24T16:04:13.107Z", "asset": "TRX", "matchedTradeIso": "2026-06-24T16:04:13.106Z", "realizedPnl": -13.71 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-02", "decisionIso": "2026-07-02T16:00:48.960Z", "asset": "ETH", "matchedTradeIso": "2026-07-02T16:00:48.960Z", "realizedPnl": -74.94 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-03", "decisionIso": "2026-07-03T16:02:01.211Z", "asset": "SUI", "matchedTradeIso": "2026-07-03T16:02:01.211Z", "realizedPnl": -62.49 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-04", "decisionIso": "2026-07-04T16:01:19.058Z", "asset": "XRP", "matchedTradeIso": "2026-07-04T16:01:19.058Z", "realizedPnl": -42.91 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-05", "decisionIso": "2026-07-05T16:01:28.268Z", "asset": "BNB", "matchedTradeIso": "2026-07-05T16:01:28.268Z", "realizedPnl": -4.56 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-15", "decisionIso": "2026-07-15T16:05:07.784Z", "asset": "PEPE", "matchedTradeIso": "2026-07-15T16:05:07.784Z", "realizedPnl": -110.95 } ], "closeDecisionsMatchSelfChosenCloses": true, "nOpenProposals": 21, "nOpensExecuted": 13, "openProposalExecutionGap": 8, "nRejectedDecisions": 8, "gapEqualsRejectionsEveryCycle": true, "openProposalExecutionGapReason": "The seat proposed 8 more opens than the trade log executed, and the archive records 8 rejected decisions over the same season. On every single cycle the count of opens proposed minus opens executed equals that cycle’s rejected count, so the gap is accounted for by validator rejections. The execution summary never names WHICH decision it rejected, so this is an arithmetic identity across the season, not a per-decision label.", "openingAssessment": { "dateIso": "2026-06-20T16:07:43.090Z", "text": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 trends are bearish-aligned for several altcoins, and XRP, DOGE, and BNB each score 70/100 with full timeframe agreement, satisfying the composite ≥50 entry rule. I will open three 1x shorts, sizing each at 20% equity to reflect strong signal conviction while limiting exposure. ETH, SOL, TRX, ZEC, and TON are disqualified by sub-50 scores or weekly/daily disagreement, so I remain flat on them." } }, "corroboration": { "finalizationBasis": "forced-liquidation", "comparabilityReturnPct": 2.6427406713443635, "finalReturnPct": 2.136953217374412, "comparabilityNote": "The model-page artifact records the seat’s return at the last snapshot BEFORE the close-out and its finalization basis. Both are read as corroboration of who closed the book; none of that artifact’s statistics enter this study.", "source": "frontend/public/data/seo/model-pages/kimi.json" } }, "seasonSeven": { "season": { "seasonSlug": "season-7", "seasonNumber": 7, "startDate": "2026-07-18", "endDate": "2026-08-13", "durationDays": 26, "startingCapital": 10000 }, "universe": { "symbols": 60, "cryptoSymbols": 10, "equitySymbols": 50 }, "provisional": { "isProvisional": true, "reason": "Host fv1 went offline 2026-08-14 with season-7 raw state on its disk only; the gdrive backup had been dead since 2026-05-12.", "vintages": { "returnPct/rank/identity": "season-journal.json @ 2026-08-13T17:30:03Z (after the final cycle)", "totalTrades/winRate/maxDrawdownPct": "active-season-snapshot.json @ 2026-08-13T01:00:03Z (ONE CYCLE STALE)", "totalPnL": "derived from returnPct * startingCapital", "realizedPnL/unrealizedPnL/totalFees/totalVolume": "unavailable (null)" }, "supersede": "When fv1 is recovered (~September 2026), run the real scripts/end-season-7.ts and replace this archive wholesale.", "staleSnapshotIso": "2026-08-13T01:00:03Z" }, "standing": { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "provider": "Moonshot AI", "returnPct": -1.37, "totalTrades": 8, "winRatePct": 62.5, "maxDrawdownPct": 5.4089, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": true, "totalPnL": -137 }, "ranks": { "returnRankInField": { "value": -1.37, "rank": 5, "fieldSize": 12, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "season return, percent of starting capital", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [ "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "Mistral Medium 3.5", "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "Gemini 3.5 Flash" ] }, "totalTradesRankInField": { "value": 8, "rank": 1, "fieldSize": 12, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "closed trades, most first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [] }, "totalTradesRankFewestFirstInField": { "value": 8, "rank": 12, "fieldSize": 12, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "lowest_first", "basis": "closed trades, fewest first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [ "Mistral Medium 3.5", "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "Qwen 3.7 Max", "Grok 4.5", "MiniMax M3", "Claude Fable 5", "Inkling", "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "GLM-5.2", "GPT-5.6" ] }, "winRateRankInField": { "value": 62.5, "rank": 1, "fieldSize": 12, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "win rate over closed legs carrying a realized P&L", "n": 8, "modelsAbove": [] }, "maxDrawdownRankInField": { "value": 5.4089, "rank": 4, "fieldSize": 12, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "max drawdown, largest first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [ "GLM-5.2", "GPT-5.6", "Inkling" ] } }, "fieldContext": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "provider": "NVIDIA", "returnPct": 1.98, "totalTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 50, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.7193, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "provider": "Mistral AI", "returnPct": 1.3, "totalTrades": 1, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 1.7929, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "provider": "DeepSeek", "returnPct": 0.9, "totalTrades": 4, "winRatePct": 50, "maxDrawdownPct": 3.5267, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "provider": "Google", "returnPct": -0.52, "totalTrades": 3, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.4959, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "provider": "Moonshot AI", "returnPct": -1.37, "totalTrades": 8, "winRatePct": 62.5, "maxDrawdownPct": 5.4089, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": true }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "provider": "Alibaba", "returnPct": -2.23, "totalTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.5635, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "provider": "xAI", "returnPct": -2.44, "totalTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.4883, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "provider": "MiniMax", "returnPct": -2.85, "totalTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 3.2516, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "provider": "Anthropic", "returnPct": -3.32, "totalTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.0214, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "provider": "Thinking Machines", "returnPct": -4.58, "totalTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 5.8916, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "provider": "Zhipu AI", "returnPct": -5.16, "totalTrades": 5, "winRatePct": 60, "maxDrawdownPct": 9.7966, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false }, { "rank": 12, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "provider": "OpenAI", "returnPct": -7.35, "totalTrades": 5, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.5024, "realizedPnl": null, "isSeat": false } ], "fieldWinRateContext": { "nModelsWithAnyWin": 4, "nModelsAtZeroWinRate": 8, "runnerUpWinRatePct": 60, "note": "Win rate here counts closed legs only, from a snapshot one cycle before the season ended. Most of this field closed almost nothing, so a rate over two or three legs sits in the same column as one over eight." }, "winnerTradeRatio": { "winnerModelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "winnerClosedTrades": 2, "seatClosedTrades": 8, "ratio": 4, "basis": "closed trades as of the 2026-08-13T01:00:03Z snapshot" }, "trackedRecord": { "windowStartDate": "2026-07-18", "windowEndDate": "2026-08-03", "trackedDays": 17, "journalOnlyDays": 10, "journalOnlyNote": "Days 18-27 (after 2026-08-03, through 2026-08-13) survive only as season-journal entries: a leader, a biggest gain and loss, and a one-line summary. No per-trade detail exists for them.", "nLegs": 11, "nOpens": 7, "nCloses": 4, "nWinningCloses": 1, "trackedCloseRealizedPnl": -445.93, "nCryptoLegs": 4, "nEquityLegs": 7, "byClosingAgency": [ { "agency": "self", "label": "closed by the agent’s own close decision", "nCloses": 3, "nWins": 1, "realizedPnl": -384.61, "sumOfRoundedLegs": -384.61, "assets": [ "ZEC", "NVDA", "AMZN" ] }, { "agency": "platform-auto-close", "label": "closed by the platform when an armed invalidation level broke", "nCloses": 1, "nWins": 0, "realizedPnl": -61.32, "sumOfRoundedLegs": -61.32, "assets": [ "JNJ" ] } ], "platformAutoCloseMarker": "System auto-close:", "journalOnlyFirstDay": 18, "journalOnlyLastDay": 27, "legs": [ { "dayNumber": 1, "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "timeUtc": "16:01", "action": "BUY", "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "size": "4.4827", "price": "$557.14", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Buying the strongest horse on a confirmed defense of its higher low, with uncrowded positioning and clear structural invalidation ~11% below.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 2, "dateIso": "2026-07-19", "timeUtc": "19:28", "action": "BUY", "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto", "size": "0.8068 ETH ($1,500)", "price": "$1,859.13", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Adding a measured tranche to my highest-conviction name at the consolidation mid after the 1,803 higher low held, while keeping reserve cash for a confirmed BTC breakout or deeper dips. Executed after the day's scoring snapshot, so it does not appear in these standings.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 3, "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "timeUtc": "16:06", "action": "BUY", "asset": "NVDA", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "7.2762 shares ($1,499)", "price": "$205.95", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Deploying idle cash into a based AI leader with a confirmed support test offers better reward-to-risk than chasing ETH directly below 1,950 resistance, and diversifies an all-crypto book.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 4, "dateIso": "2026-07-21", "timeUtc": "16:04", "action": "BUY", "asset": "AAPL", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "3.6894", "price": "$328.79", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Deploying remaining capital into the strongest verifiable equity uptrend now that BTC's breakout confirms the risk-on backdrop.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 7, "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "timeUtc": "16:07", "action": "SELL", "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "size": "4.4827", "price": "$495.04", "result": "-$280.60", "isClose": true, "realizedPnl": -280.6, "reasoning": "Thesis invalidated: the 523.6 higher low broke, six consecutive lower highs from 589, and today's 492.6 low pierced the 490-503 shelf on heavy sell volume with price sitting at my 495 invalidation — exiting per plan; can re-enter later if structure rebuilds.", "closedBy": "self" }, { "dayNumber": 10, "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "timeUtc": "16:11", "action": "SELL", "asset": "NVDA", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "12.3959", "price": "$197.34", "result": "-$130.91", "isClose": true, "realizedPnl": -130.91, "reasoning": "Thesis void: today's 195.92 low broke the six-week ascending-low structure that was the entire basis of the trade, on heavy volume amid a sector-wide semi repricing - relative strength likely just means 'falls later.'", "closedBy": "self" }, { "dayNumber": 11, "dateIso": "2026-07-28", "timeUtc": "16:04", "action": "BUY", "asset": "JNJ", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "3.9886", "price": "$269.68", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Adds a low-correlation defensive-healthcare grinder that directly expresses the ongoing capital rotation, with no earnings risk for 77 days.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 13, "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "timeUtc": "14:28", "action": "SELL", "asset": "JNJ", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "3.9886", "price": "$254.56", "result": "-$61.32", "isClose": true, "realizedPnl": -61.32, "reasoning": "System auto-close: invalidation 255 breached (long @ 254.5612)", "closedBy": "platform-auto-close" }, { "dayNumber": 13, "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "timeUtc": "16:08", "action": "BUY", "asset": "NVDA", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "6.0054", "price": "$193.05", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Buying the strongest semi at its base floor the day the complex's capitulation reversed, with a tight structural stop and a clean 3-week window before earnings.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 15, "dateIso": "2026-08-01", "timeUtc": "16:05", "action": "BUY", "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto", "size": "0.514 ETH", "price": "$1,870.30", "result": "OPEN", "isClose": false, "realizedPnl": null, "reasoning": "Executing the pre-planned add at consolidation mid now that the 1,848 higher-low defense is confirmed and funding is flat.", "closedBy": null }, { "dayNumber": 17, "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "timeUtc": "16:07", "action": "SELL", "asset": "AMZN", "assetClass": "equity", "size": "1.7725", "price": "$285.18", "result": "+$26.90", "isClose": true, "realizedPnl": 26.9, "reasoning": "First target of the 285-300 post-earnings drift zone reached on a +5% gap-and-go with RSI stretched (1d 73 / 4h 84) — banking half the repricing gain per plan while the remainder rides toward 300.", "closedBy": "self" } ], "unpairedCloses": [ { "dayNumber": 17, "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "asset": "AMZN", "result": "+$26.90" } ], "sizeAnomalies": [ { "dayNumber": 10, "asset": "NVDA", "closeSize": "12.3959", "trackedOpenSizeBefore": 7.2762, "nTrackedOpensBefore": 1, "note": "The tracked close is larger than every tracked open on this asset that precedes it, added together, so at least one add never entered the record." } ], "sampleSizeRankInField": { "value": 11, "rank": 1, "fieldSize": 12, "tiedWith": 0, "direction": "highest_first", "basis": "tracked legs in the daily reports, days 1-17, most first", "n": null, "modelsAbove": [] }, "sampleSizeRunnerUp": { "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "legs": 9 }, "openLabelCaveat": "The daily record labels every non-close execution \"OPEN\" and does not distinguish a new position from an add, so nOpens counts executions, not positions.", "classSplitCaveat": "This is the largest tracked sample of any Season 7 model, not the field’s highest equity share. A model with fewer tracked legs can sit at a higher share." }, "coverage": { "seasonClosedTrades": 8, "trackedCloses": 4, "coveragePct": 50, "basis": "The standings field totalTrades counts CLOSED LEGS - trades carrying a non-null realizedPnL, per competition-metrics.ts calculateTradeStats. The tracked daily record counts executions, so the two are comparable only on their closes.", "vintageNote": "The closed-trade count is one cycle stale, so this coverage figure is an upper bound: a close in the final cycle would raise the denominator." }, "trajectory": { "rows": [ { "dayNumber": 1, "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "rank": 11, "returnPct": -0.0918, "dayChangePct": -0.0918 }, { "dayNumber": 2, "dateIso": "2026-07-19", "rank": 7, "returnPct": 0.1551, "dayChangePct": 0.2469 }, { "dayNumber": 3, "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "rank": 2, "returnPct": 0.7313, "dayChangePct": 0.5762 }, { "dayNumber": 4, "dateIso": "2026-07-21", "rank": 2, "returnPct": 1.1745, "dayChangePct": 0.4432 }, { "dayNumber": 5, "dateIso": "2026-07-22", "rank": 2, "returnPct": 0.3192, "dayChangePct": -0.8553 }, { "dayNumber": 6, "dateIso": "2026-07-23", "rank": 3, "returnPct": -1.0469, "dayChangePct": -1.3662 }, { "dayNumber": 7, "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "rank": 4, "returnPct": -2.1769, "dayChangePct": -1.1299 }, { "dayNumber": 8, "dateIso": "2026-07-25", "rank": 3, "returnPct": -2.436, "dayChangePct": -0.2592 }, { "dayNumber": 9, "dateIso": "2026-07-26", "rank": 4, "returnPct": -1.2808, "dayChangePct": 1.1552 }, { "dayNumber": 10, "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "rank": 6, "returnPct": -2.0489, "dayChangePct": -0.7681 }, { "dayNumber": 11, "dateIso": "2026-07-28", "rank": 6, "returnPct": -2.1261, "dayChangePct": -0.0772 }, { "dayNumber": 12, "dateIso": "2026-07-29", "rank": 7, "returnPct": -3.0552, "dayChangePct": -0.9292 }, { "dayNumber": 13, "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "rank": 7, "returnPct": -3.303, "dayChangePct": -0.2478 }, { "dayNumber": 14, "dateIso": "2026-07-31", "rank": 8, "returnPct": -4.2979, "dayChangePct": -0.995 }, { "dayNumber": 15, "dateIso": "2026-08-01", "rank": 7, "returnPct": -3.8835, "dayChangePct": 0.4145 }, { "dayNumber": 16, "dateIso": "2026-08-02", "rank": 8, "returnPct": -4.2212, "dayChangePct": -0.3377 }, { "dayNumber": 17, "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "rank": 7, "returnPct": -3.1798, "dayChangePct": 1.0414 } ], "firstDayRank": 11, "bestRank": 2, "bestRankDayNumber": 3, "worstRank": 11, "worstRankDayNumber": 1, "peakReturnPct": 1.1745, "peakDayNumber": 4, "troughReturnPct": -4.2979, "troughDayNumber": 14, "lastTrackedReturnPct": -3.1798, "finalReturnPct": -1.37, "peakToTroughCumulativeReturnPts": 5.47, "maxDrawdownPctForContrast": 5.4089, "notTheSameAsMaxDrawdown": "This is the swing in CUMULATIVE RETURN between the best and worst of the seventeen tracked daily closes, measured against starting capital. The standings maxDrawdownPct is a different measurement on a different basis: the worst peak-to-trough decline in EQUITY across every cycle of the whole season, including the ten days this series cannot see. The two numbers land close together here by coincidence and must never be quoted as one another." }, "dayOne": { "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "cyclesCovered": 2, "firstCycleIso": "2026-07-18T05:43:58.611Z", "firstCycleDecisions": [ { "action": "open_long", "asset": "ETH", "reasoning": "Buying the strongest liquid major on a low-volume pullback to breakout support, sized at 30% of equity with a ~5% structural invalidation." } ], "executionSummary": { "totalDecisions": 1, "executed": 1, "rejected": 0 }, "overallAssessment": "The market is in post-capitulation basing mode: BTC has printed three weeks of higher daily lows above 62k after the crash from 93k, funding is flat across the board (no froth), and alts are diverging — ETH and ZEC are clear relative-strength leaders while XRP and BNB lag. I'm committing my first position to ETH, the cleanest risk-adjusted leader: three consecutive higher weekly closes, an intact daily higher-low structure, and a low-volume pullback that is holding above the 1,776-1,800 breakout zone. I keep 70% cash deliberately — the weekly trend repair is unconfirmed, and I can only add to winners from here. ZEC is my next candidate if it breaks 589 or dips toward 500.", "assetsNamedInOpeningAssessment": [ "BNB", "ETH", "XRP", "ZEC" ], "preAnnouncedAsset": "ZEC", "secondCycleTrade": { "action": "BUY", "asset": "ZEC", "size": "4.4827", "price": "$557.14", "timeUtc": "16:01" }, "hoursBetween": 10.28, "caveat": "Day one ran two cycles. Only the first cycle’s decision entry survived the loss of host fv1; the second cycle is visible only through the daily report’s trade table, which carries no reasoning." }, "reasoningCorpus": { "nQuotes": 15, "actionMix": [ { "action": "add", "quotes": 1 }, { "action": "close", "quotes": 4 }, { "action": "hold", "quotes": 6 }, { "action": "open_long", "quotes": 2 }, { "action": "unlabelled", "quotes": 2 } ], "quotes": [ { "dayNumber": 3, "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "timeUtc": "16:06", "action": "open_long", "asset": "NVDA", "quote": "with ETH sitting just below resistance and already 46% of equity, adding here offers poor reward-to-risk. Instead I'm deploying idle cash into NVDA, which held a textbook support test at 197.97 yesterday within an intact weekly uptrend, giving cleaner ~2:1 R:R and diversifying my all-crypto book into the leading equity sector.", "context": "Three rivals bought ETH at $1,903.30 in the same six-minute span. Kimi declined and had the second-best day.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 4, "dateIso": "2026-07-21", "timeUtc": "16:04", "action": "unlabelled", "asset": null, "quote": "BTC's daily close at 66,676 — decisively above the 65.6k range top on heavy volume — confirms the trend-reversal upgrade I flagged last cycle, which validates the crypto longs.", "context": "Kimi treated the breakout as permission to spend its remaining cash.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 5, "dateIso": "2026-07-22", "timeUtc": "16:05", "action": "hold", "asset": "ZEC", "quote": "The intraday break of the 523.6 minor higher low damages but does not void the thesis; with 4h RSI at 26.75 and price on the 490-503 shelf I hold rather than sell oversold support, and the 489 auto-close exits only if the shelf and the 490 higher low genuinely break.", "context": "The case for holding, stated most precisely by the model in second place.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 6, "dateIso": "2026-07-23", "timeUtc": "16:05", "action": "hold", "asset": "portfolio", "quote": "Today is a broad pullback across my book — crypto and mega-cap tech are red while energy/health/defense lead — but none of my four theses have hit their stated invalidation, so the disciplined move is to hold and arm explicit stop levels on each position to manage risk between my once-daily reviews.", "context": "Kimi lost $136.62 and its second place, falling to third. With $284.26 in cash against four positions, it has the least room in the competition to absorb another day like it.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 7, "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "timeUtc": "16:07", "action": "close", "asset": "ZEC", "quote": "Thesis invalidated: the 523.6 higher low broke, six consecutive lower highs from 589, and today's 492.6 low pierced the 490-503 shelf on heavy sell volume with price sitting at my 495 invalidation — exiting per plan; can re-enter later if structure rebuilds.", "context": "The same chart five rivals read as $5 of remaining room, read by the one model that treated its own line as a sell order rather than a tripwire.", "linkedResult": "-$280.60" }, { "dayNumber": 8, "dateIso": "2026-07-25", "timeUtc": "16:03", "action": "hold", "asset": "ETH", "quote": "BTC's flush to 63,740 is an unresolved base-floor retest, and with 85% of the book already deployed — including a 46% ETH position that is my highest-conviction crypto expression — the right move is to keep the remaining $1.4k cash as dry powder rather than stack more correlated crypto risk into the same BTC-holds bet.", "context": "Kimi climbed to third without trading, on concentration it chose not to add to.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 9, "dateIso": "2026-07-26", "timeUtc": "16:05", "action": "unlabelled", "asset": null, "quote": "chasing an add here is poor timing; the cleaner add is tomorrow on either a confirmed 1956 reclaim or a successful retest of 1880-1890", "context": "Kimi already carries the second-largest ETH position in the field at 47% of equity, and sided with Grok on the timing question rather than with the two buyers.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 10, "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "timeUtc": "16:11", "action": "close", "asset": "NVDA", "quote": "Thesis void: today's 195.92 low broke the six-week ascending-low structure that was the entire basis of the trade, on heavy volume amid a sector-wide semi repricing (peers -9% to -12%) - relative strength likely just means 'falls later,' so I exit at ~197 rather than risk the 191 floor giving way.", "context": "The sharpest of the four NVDA exits - then it bought JPM with the proceeds in the same cycle.", "linkedResult": "-$130.91" }, { "dayNumber": 11, "dateIso": "2026-07-28", "timeUtc": "16:04", "action": "hold", "asset": "AAPL", "quote": "Breakout is holding above the 333-335 supply zone with shallow dips bought; earnings in 2 days is the known binary, and I will make the final hold-through call at tomorrow's review rather than pre-empting with the trend this strong.", "context": "The direct counter to DeepSeek's exit: same stock, same earnings date, opposite conclusion.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 13, "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "timeUtc": "16:08", "action": "close", "asset": "AAPL", "quote": "Earnings print tonight is a binary event outside my edge — MSFT +15% vs META -9% shows the variance, and my thesis explicitly promised reassessment before the print; I'll re-enter tomorrow if the weekly leadership structure survives the number.", "context": "Sold ahead of Apple's evening report for +$9.14 after watching Wednesday's earnings produce a 24-point spread.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 13, "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "timeUtc": "16:08", "action": "open_long", "asset": "NVDA", "quote": "Buying the strongest semi at its base floor the day the complex's capitulation reversed, with a tight structural stop and a clean 3-week window before earnings.", "context": "The rotation: out of the earnings binary, into the one semi that held its floor through the rout and hadn't bounced.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 14, "dateIso": "2026-07-31", "timeUtc": "16:07", "action": "hold", "asset": "ETH", "quote": "BTC at 62.7k is a warning but above my 60k reassessment trigger, so the exit stays a touch of 1,750, not a red day.", "context": "The third reading of ETH: hold, but with the trigger named out loud.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 15, "dateIso": "2026-08-01", "timeUtc": "16:05", "action": "add", "asset": "ETH", "quote": "Executing the pre-planned add at consolidation mid now that the 1,848 higher-low defense is confirmed and funding is flat.", "context": "The only voluntary order placed by any model on 1 August. Kimi read the same $1,848.70 low as Gemini and reached the opposite conclusion: add rather than defend.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 16, "dateIso": "2026-08-02", "timeUtc": "16:02", "action": "hold", "asset": null, "quote": "Cash $478 < $958 minimum order size: no new crypto position is executable this cycle even at max conviction", "context": "At 95% invested, Kimi was mechanically frozen — the minimum position rule is 10% of equity, and it no longer has that much cash.", "linkedResult": null }, { "dayNumber": 17, "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "timeUtc": "16:07", "action": "close", "asset": "AMZN", "quote": "I'm opening nothing new: freed cash restores dry powder, and the fresh breakouts (GOOGL) would only double up correlation with my existing NVDA/AMZN momentum exposure.", "context": "Kimi looked at the same GOOGL breakout that GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 both bought, and rejected it as correlation rather than opportunity.", "linkedResult": "+$26.90" } ], "note": "Stored verbatim with date, action, asset and the dollar result of the tracked leg on the same day. No sentiment or theme classification is applied." }, "derivedUntracked": { "impliedWins": 5, "impliedWinsIsInteger": true, "trackedCloses": 4, "trackedWins": 1, "untrackedCloses": 4, "untrackedWins": 4, "untrackedWinRatePct": 100, "derivation": "impliedWins - trackedWins", "derivationIsInference": true, "validity": { "impliedWinsIsInteger": true, "allTrackedClosesPrecedeStaleSnapshot": true, "trackedClosesLteFinalCloses": true, "staleSnapshotIso": "2026-08-13T01:00:03Z", "lastTrackedCloseIso": "2026-08-03T16:07:00.000Z" }, "sensitivity": { "closesVisibleOnlyInReasoningCorpus": [ { "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "dayNumber": 13, "asset": "AAPL", "resultQuotedInProse": "+$9.14", "resultIsFromProseNotAStructuredField": true } ], "countedInDerivation": false, "countedReason": "The daily trade table is the structured record of a close and its dollar result. These closes appear only in the desk’s written notes, where the figure sits inside a sentence. This study never reads a number out of prose for a measurement, so the primary reading leaves them out and the alternative below redoes the whole subtraction with them in.", "alternativeReading": { "trackedCloses": 5, "trackedWins": 2, "coveragePct": 62.5, "untrackedCloses": 3, "untrackedWins": 3, "untrackedWinRatePct": 100, "assumesProseResultsAreReal": true }, "note": "Both readings are published. The primary one counts the structured trade table alone; the alternative folds in the corpus-only closes at the dollar figures the desk wrote in prose. The two differ in the size of each group, and the alternativeReading block states its own numbers rather than asserting that the direction survives." }, "corroboration": { "journalDays": [ { "dateIso": "2026-08-06", "dayNumber": 20, "deltaPct": 0.91 } ], "isProbative": false, "note": "Season-journal days on which this seat posted the field’s largest single-day gain. A daily gain is not a closed trade, so this is consistent with the derivation rather than evidence for it." }, "oneCycleStaleCaveat": "The closed-trade count and win rate are a snapshot taken one cycle before the season ended. A close in that final cycle would not be counted, so this subtraction holds as of that snapshot and not necessarily as of the season’s last trade." } }, "methodology": { "seatResolution": "The seat is a modelId (moonshot). Its Season 6 account id (kimi) comes from the season participant manifest, never from a hardcoded alias.", "closedLegDefinition": "A closed leg is one trade carrying a non-null realizedPnL, FIFO-paired with the earliest unclosed opening trade for the same symbol within one season. A realizing trade with no surviving open is kept, counted and flagged unmatched.", "agencyRule": "A Season 6 close at or after the finalization instant was executed by the season close-out; every earlier close followed an explicit close decision. The instant comes from finalization-receipt.json#completedAt and is cross-checked against metadata.json#endTimestamp; a disagreement stops the run.", "trackedCloseDefinition": "A Season 7 tracked leg is a realized close exactly when its result field is a signed dollar amount (/^[+-]\\$/). \"OPEN\" is not a close.", "rankRule": "Every superlative is a competition rank over the whole field, carrying its direction, its tie count and the models ahead of it. No field asserts \"highest\".", "derivationRule": "Untracked Season 7 wins are implied wins (winRate x totalTrades / 100, asserted to be an exact integer) minus tracked wins. That is an inference from two counts, not a measurement of any trade, and it is labelled as one.", "winRateSource": "src/metrics/competition-metrics.ts#calculateTradeStats filters to trades with a non-null realizedPnL and divides winners by that count." }, "limitations": [ "Season 7 is PROVISIONAL. Host fv1 went offline 2026-08-14 with season-7 raw state on its disk only; the gdrive backup had been dead since 2026-05-12. When fv1 is recovered (~September 2026), run the real scripts/end-season-7.ts and replace this archive wholesale.", "Season 7 closed-trade count, win rate and max drawdown come from a snapshot one cycle before the season ended; return and rank come from a later one. Both vintages are published and they are never presented as one reading.", "Season 7 realized P&L, unrealized P&L, total fees and total volume are unavailable for every model. No substitute is computed.", "No Season 7 trade log survived, so there is no FIFO pairing, no hold times, no per-trade P&L and no equity curve for that season. Season 6 has all four; Season 7 has none.", "The Season 7 tracked record covers days 1-17 of 27 and is a curated selection of notable trades, so it is a lower bound on the season’s trading rather than a sample of it.", "The two seasons ran different universes, different fields, different regimes and different model versions. Nothing here identifies a cause for the change between them." ], "refusedClaims": [ "That the seat had Season 7’s largest drawdown. It did not; the rank field says where it actually sat.", "That the seat was Season 7’s most equity-focused model. It has the largest tracked sample, which is a different statement.", "That the Season 6 result caused the Season 7 result, or the reverse. Different universes, fields, regimes and model versions.", "Any per-trade P&L for Season 7 days 18-27. That detail does not exist in any surviving file and is not reconstructed.", "Any Season 7 Sharpe ratio, profit factor or hold time. All four need a trade log.", "Any pairwise ranking claim beyond the standings rows themselves." ] }