{
  "schemaVersion": 2,
  "dataSnapshotTime": "2026-07-10T16:20:18.340Z",
  "dataRoot": "/home/v/git/ai-trading-playground/data",
  "seasonsIncluded": [
    "season-3",
    "season-4",
    "season-5",
    "season-6"
  ],
  "skippedSeasons": [
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-0",
      "reason": "no decision-history data"
    },
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-1",
      "reason": "no decision-history data"
    },
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-2",
      "reason": "no_market_prices"
    }
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "voteMapping": {
      "bullishActions": [
        "open_long"
      ],
      "bearishActions": [
        "open_short"
      ],
      "scaleInActions": [
        "add",
        "add_to_position"
      ],
      "scaleInRule": "Scale-ins vote in the direction of the model’s tracked open position; when the side cannot be inferred from the model’s own prior opens/closes in the season, the scale-in is not a vote.",
      "nonVoteActions": [
        "close",
        "hold",
        "modify_stop",
        "stay_flat"
      ],
      "unknownActionRule": "Unrecognized actions never vote and are counted separately."
    },
    "crowdingRule": "The construct measured is crowding, not disagreement-resolution: only models that act on an asset vote, holders are silent, and dissent manifests as abstention. A consensus event requires at least 3 same-direction voters and zero opposing voters; cycle-assets with any opposing vote are reported in the agreement profile instead.",
    "minVoters": 3,
    "horizonsCycles": [
      1,
      3,
      7
    ],
    "decisionToCycleToleranceMs": 3600000,
    "snapshotDedupeWindowMs": 21600000,
    "snapshotDedupeRule": "Cycles are not uniformly spaced (redeploys write near-duplicate snapshots minutes apart). Consecutive equity snapshots less than 6 hours apart are collapsed to the latest snapshot of the cluster, and all cycle matching and forward horizons use the deduplicated sequence. Dropped snapshots are counted in nDedupedSnapshots.",
    "executionRule": {
      "verified": "Entries whose executionSummary reports every decision executed are verified; their directional decisions vote.",
      "rejected": "executionSummary is entry-level only, so when an entry reports any rejected execution the failed decision cannot be identified; none of that entry’s directional decisions vote or set position side-tracking (counted in nVotesDroppedRejectedExecution / nEntriesWithRejectedExecutions).",
      "unverified": "Entries without an executionSummary keep stated intent behavior: their decisions vote and are counted in nUnverifiedExecutions."
    },
    "statistics": {
      "pValueRule": "pValueVsCoin is an exact two-sided binomial test of nCorrect out of n against p = 0.5 (small-p-values method: total probability of all outcomes no more likely than the observed one). No normal approximation is used.",
      "driftBaselineRule": "driftBaseline scores an always-bearish dummy on the same event windows; pValueVsDummy is an exact two-sided binomial test of the crowd’s nCorrect with the dummy’s observed hit rate as the null. The dummy rate is a point estimate, so this comparison understates uncertainty in the baseline itself."
    },
    "outcomeRule": "A consensus is correct when the sign of the forward price change over the horizon matches the consensus direction; a zero change is incorrect. Horizons beyond the last recorded cycle or without a resolvable price are excluded, never fabricated.",
    "outcomeExclusions": [
      "season_end",
      "missing_price"
    ],
    "rosterRule": "Only models listed in the season’s official participants[].modelId roster are counted."
  },
  "overall": {
    "consensusEvents": {
      "nEvents": 53,
      "directionSkew": {
        "nBullish": 11,
        "nBearish": 42
      },
      "horizons": [
        {
          "horizonCycles": 1,
          "n": 52,
          "nCorrect": 23,
          "hitRatePct": 44.2,
          "pValueVsCoin": 0.488456,
          "byDirection": {
            "bullish": {
              "n": 11,
              "nCorrect": 5,
              "hitRatePct": 45.5
            },
            "bearish": {
              "n": 41,
              "nCorrect": 18,
              "hitRatePct": 43.9
            }
          },
          "driftBaseline": {
            "dummy": "always_bearish",
            "nDummyCorrect": 24,
            "dummyHitRatePct": 46.2,
            "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -1.9,
            "pValueVsDummy": 0.889561
          },
          "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 1,
          "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
        },
        {
          "horizonCycles": 3,
          "n": 46,
          "nCorrect": 29,
          "hitRatePct": 63,
          "pValueVsCoin": 0.103805,
          "byDirection": {
            "bullish": {
              "n": 10,
              "nCorrect": 2,
              "hitRatePct": 20
            },
            "bearish": {
              "n": 36,
              "nCorrect": 27,
              "hitRatePct": 75
            }
          },
          "driftBaseline": {
            "dummy": "always_bearish",
            "nDummyCorrect": 35,
            "dummyHitRatePct": 76.1,
            "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -13,
            "pValueVsDummy": 0.054986
          },
          "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 7,
          "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
        },
        {
          "horizonCycles": 7,
          "n": 40,
          "nCorrect": 27,
          "hitRatePct": 67.5,
          "pValueVsCoin": 0.038477,
          "byDirection": {
            "bullish": {
              "n": 7,
              "nCorrect": 2,
              "hitRatePct": 28.6
            },
            "bearish": {
              "n": 33,
              "nCorrect": 25,
              "hitRatePct": 75.8
            }
          },
          "driftBaseline": {
            "dummy": "always_bearish",
            "nDummyCorrect": 30,
            "dummyHitRatePct": 75,
            "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -7.5,
            "pValueVsDummy": 0.275359
          },
          "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 13,
          "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
        }
      ]
    },
    "agreementProfile": {
      "voterCountDistribution": [
        {
          "nVoters": 1,
          "nGroups": 77
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 2,
          "nGroups": 40
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 3,
          "nGroups": 15
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 4,
          "nGroups": 10
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 5,
          "nGroups": 16
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 6,
          "nGroups": 4
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 7,
          "nGroups": 2
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 8,
          "nGroups": 3
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 10,
          "nGroups": 2
        },
        {
          "nVoters": 11,
          "nGroups": 1
        }
      ],
      "nGroupsWithAnyOpposingVote": 0,
      "nConflictingVotes": 0
    },
    "contrarian": {
      "horizons": [
        {
          "horizonCycles": 1,
          "nContrarianVotes": 0,
          "nCorrect": 0,
          "hitRatePct": null
        },
        {
          "horizonCycles": 3,
          "nContrarianVotes": 0,
          "nCorrect": 0,
          "hitRatePct": null
        },
        {
          "horizonCycles": 7,
          "nContrarianVotes": 0,
          "nCorrect": 0,
          "hitRatePct": null
        }
      ]
    },
    "sampleSizes": {
      "nVotes": 415,
      "nCycleAssetsWithVotes": 170,
      "nConsensusEvents": 53,
      "nExcludedBelowMinVoters": 117,
      "nTied": 0,
      "nUnknownActions": 0,
      "nAddsWithUnknownSide": 5,
      "nConflictingVotes": 0,
      "nEntriesUnmatchedToCycle": 9,
      "nDedupedSnapshots": 2,
      "nEntriesWithRejectedExecutions": 116,
      "nVotesDroppedRejectedExecution": 207,
      "nUnverifiedExecutions": 0
    }
  },
  "seasons": [
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-3",
      "consensusEvents": {
        "nEvents": 12,
        "directionSkew": {
          "nBullish": 1,
          "nBearish": 11
        },
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "n": 12,
            "nCorrect": 7,
            "hitRatePct": 58.3,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.774414,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 1,
                "nCorrect": 0,
                "hitRatePct": 0
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 11,
                "nCorrect": 7,
                "hitRatePct": 63.6
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 8,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 66.7,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -8.3,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.549602
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 0,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "n": 12,
            "nCorrect": 11,
            "hitRatePct": 91.7,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.006348,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 1,
                "nCorrect": 0,
                "hitRatePct": 0
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 11,
                "nCorrect": 11,
                "hitRatePct": 100
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 12,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 100,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -8.3,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 0,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "n": 12,
            "nCorrect": 10,
            "hitRatePct": 83.3,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.038574,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 1,
                "nCorrect": 0,
                "hitRatePct": 0
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 11,
                "nCorrect": 10,
                "hitRatePct": 90.9
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 11,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 91.7,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -8.3,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.264009
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 0,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          }
        ]
      },
      "agreementProfile": {
        "voterCountDistribution": [
          {
            "nVoters": 1,
            "nGroups": 16
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 2,
            "nGroups": 7
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 3,
            "nGroups": 6
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 4,
            "nGroups": 3
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 5,
            "nGroups": 1
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 6,
            "nGroups": 1
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 8,
            "nGroups": 1
          }
        ],
        "nGroupsWithAnyOpposingVote": 0,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0
      },
      "contrarian": {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          }
        ]
      },
      "sampleSizes": {
        "nVotes": 79,
        "nCycleAssetsWithVotes": 35,
        "nConsensusEvents": 12,
        "nExcludedBelowMinVoters": 23,
        "nTied": 0,
        "nUnknownActions": 0,
        "nAddsWithUnknownSide": 0,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0,
        "nEntriesUnmatchedToCycle": 0,
        "nDedupedSnapshots": 0,
        "nEntriesWithRejectedExecutions": 37,
        "nVotesDroppedRejectedExecution": 75,
        "nUnverifiedExecutions": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-4",
      "consensusEvents": {
        "nEvents": 9,
        "directionSkew": {
          "nBullish": 1,
          "nBearish": 8
        },
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "n": 8,
            "nCorrect": 4,
            "hitRatePct": 50,
            "pValueVsCoin": 1,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 1,
                "nCorrect": 0,
                "hitRatePct": 0
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 7,
                "nCorrect": 4,
                "hitRatePct": 57.1
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 5,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 62.5,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -12.5,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.483675
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 1,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "n": 6,
            "nCorrect": 5,
            "hitRatePct": 83.3,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.21875,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 0,
                "nCorrect": 0,
                "hitRatePct": null
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 6,
                "nCorrect": 5,
                "hitRatePct": 83.3
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 5,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 83.3,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": 0,
              "pValueVsDummy": 1
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 3,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "n": 5,
            "nCorrect": 2,
            "hitRatePct": 40,
            "pValueVsCoin": 1,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 0,
                "nCorrect": 0,
                "hitRatePct": null
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 5,
                "nCorrect": 2,
                "hitRatePct": 40
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 2,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 40,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": 0,
              "pValueVsDummy": 1
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 4,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          }
        ]
      },
      "agreementProfile": {
        "voterCountDistribution": [
          {
            "nVoters": 1,
            "nGroups": 13
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 2,
            "nGroups": 5
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 3,
            "nGroups": 2
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 4,
            "nGroups": 2
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 5,
            "nGroups": 5
          }
        ],
        "nGroupsWithAnyOpposingVote": 0,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0
      },
      "contrarian": {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          }
        ]
      },
      "sampleSizes": {
        "nVotes": 62,
        "nCycleAssetsWithVotes": 27,
        "nConsensusEvents": 9,
        "nExcludedBelowMinVoters": 18,
        "nTied": 0,
        "nUnknownActions": 0,
        "nAddsWithUnknownSide": 3,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0,
        "nEntriesUnmatchedToCycle": 8,
        "nDedupedSnapshots": 1,
        "nEntriesWithRejectedExecutions": 26,
        "nVotesDroppedRejectedExecution": 59,
        "nUnverifiedExecutions": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-5",
      "consensusEvents": {
        "nEvents": 15,
        "directionSkew": {
          "nBullish": 6,
          "nBearish": 9
        },
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "n": 15,
            "nCorrect": 4,
            "hitRatePct": 26.7,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.118469,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 6,
                "nCorrect": 3,
                "hitRatePct": 50
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 9,
                "nCorrect": 1,
                "hitRatePct": 11.1
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 4,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 26.7,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": 0,
              "pValueVsDummy": 1
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 0,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "n": 15,
            "nCorrect": 5,
            "hitRatePct": 33.3,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.301758,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 6,
                "nCorrect": 1,
                "hitRatePct": 16.7
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 9,
                "nCorrect": 4,
                "hitRatePct": 44.4
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 9,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 60,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -26.7,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.060947
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 0,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "n": 12,
            "nCorrect": 8,
            "hitRatePct": 66.7,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.387695,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 4,
                "nCorrect": 1,
                "hitRatePct": 25
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 8,
                "nCorrect": 7,
                "hitRatePct": 87.5
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 10,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 83.3,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -16.7,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.125178
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 3,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          }
        ]
      },
      "agreementProfile": {
        "voterCountDistribution": [
          {
            "nVoters": 1,
            "nGroups": 28
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 2,
            "nGroups": 13
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 3,
            "nGroups": 4
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 4,
            "nGroups": 2
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 5,
            "nGroups": 7
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 6,
            "nGroups": 1
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 7,
            "nGroups": 1
          }
        ],
        "nGroupsWithAnyOpposingVote": 0,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0
      },
      "contrarian": {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "nContrarianVotes": 0,
            "nCorrect": 0,
            "hitRatePct": null
          }
        ]
      },
      "sampleSizes": {
        "nVotes": 122,
        "nCycleAssetsWithVotes": 56,
        "nConsensusEvents": 15,
        "nExcludedBelowMinVoters": 41,
        "nTied": 0,
        "nUnknownActions": 0,
        "nAddsWithUnknownSide": 0,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0,
        "nEntriesUnmatchedToCycle": 0,
        "nDedupedSnapshots": 0,
        "nEntriesWithRejectedExecutions": 42,
        "nVotesDroppedRejectedExecution": 60,
        "nUnverifiedExecutions": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-6",
      "consensusEvents": {
        "nEvents": 17,
        "directionSkew": {
          "nBullish": 3,
          "nBearish": 14
        },
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizonCycles": 1,
            "n": 17,
            "nCorrect": 8,
            "hitRatePct": 47.1,
            "pValueVsCoin": 1,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 3,
                "nCorrect": 2,
                "hitRatePct": 66.7
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 14,
                "nCorrect": 6,
                "hitRatePct": 42.9
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 7,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 41.2,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": 5.9,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.630379
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 0,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 3,
            "n": 13,
            "nCorrect": 8,
            "hitRatePct": 61.5,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.581055,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 3,
                "nCorrect": 1,
                "hitRatePct": 33.3
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 10,
                "nCorrect": 7,
                "hitRatePct": 70
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 9,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 69.2,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": -7.7,
              "pValueVsDummy": 0.555145
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 4,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          },
          {
            "horizonCycles": 7,
            "n": 11,
            "nCorrect": 7,
            "hitRatePct": 63.6,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.548828,
            "byDirection": {
              "bullish": {
                "n": 2,
                "nCorrect": 1,
                "hitRatePct": 50
              },
              "bearish": {
                "n": 9,
                "nCorrect": 6,
                "hitRatePct": 66.7
              }
            },
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "always_bearish",
              "nDummyCorrect": 7,
              "dummyHitRatePct": 63.6,
              "crowdMinusDummyPctPoints": 0,
              "pValueVsDummy": 1
            },
            "nExcludedSeasonEnd": 6,
            "nExcludedMissingPrice": 0
          }
        ]
      },
      "agreementProfile": {
        "voterCountDistribution": [
          {
            "nVoters": 1,
            "nGroups": 20
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 2,
            "nGroups": 15
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 3,
            "nGroups": 3
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 4,
            "nGroups": 3
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 5,
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          },
          {
            "nVoters": 6,
            "nGroups": 2
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 7,
            "nGroups": 1
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 8,
            "nGroups": 2
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 10,
            "nGroups": 2
          },
          {
            "nVoters": 11,
            "nGroups": 1
          }
        ],
        "nGroupsWithAnyOpposingVote": 0,
        "nConflictingVotes": 0
      },
      "contrarian": {
        "horizons": [
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