{ "generatedAt": "2026-08-17T04:23:53.092Z", "dataSnapshotTime": "2026-08-15T12:44:29.870Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:720613ccb3268bba816cfd287713496a3241c7082f0194885219191a53ec83dc", "sourceFiles": [ "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/alibaba.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/anthropic.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/deepseek.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/google.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/minimax.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/mistral.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/moonshot.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/nvidia.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/openai.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/thinkingmachines.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/xai.json", "data/competitions/season-7/decision-history-day1/zhipu.json", "data/competitions/season-7/report.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-18.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-19.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-20.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-21.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-22.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-23.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-24.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-25.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-26.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-27.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-28.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-29.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-30.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-07-31.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-08-01.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-08-02.json", "frontend/public/data/competitions/season-7/reports/daily/2026-08-03.json", "frontend/public/data/seo/asset-class-stats.json", "frontend/public/data/seo/season-journal-archive/season-7.json" ], "schemaVersion": 1, "season": { "seasonSlug": "season-7", "seasonNumber": 7, "startDate": "2026-07-18", "endDate": "2026-08-13", "durationDays": 26, "startingCapital": 10000 }, "provisional": { "isProvisional": true, "reason": "Host fv1 went offline 2026-08-14 with season-7 raw state on its disk only; the gdrive backup had been dead since 2026-05-12.", "vintages": { "returnPct/rank/identity": "season-journal.json @ 2026-08-13T17:30:03Z (after the final cycle)", "totalTrades/winRate/maxDrawdownPct": "active-season-snapshot.json @ 2026-08-13T01:00:03Z (ONE CYCLE STALE)", "totalPnL": "derived from returnPct * startingCapital", "realizedPnL/unrealizedPnL/totalFees/totalVolume": "unavailable (null)" }, "supersede": "When fv1 is recovered (~September 2026), run the real scripts/end-season-7.ts and replace this archive wholesale." }, "universe": { "tradeableSymbols": 60, "byClass": [ { "assetClass": "crypto", "symbols": 10 }, { "assetClass": "equity", "symbols": 50 } ], "equitySharePct": 83.3, "contextAssets": [ { "symbol": "BTC", "assetClass": "crypto" }, { "symbol": "SPY", "assetClass": "equity" } ], "contextAssetsAreTradeable": false, "contextAssetsNote": "BTC and SPY were quoted to every agent as context and could not be traded. They are excluded from the tradeable-menu counts and from every menu-share denominator.", "bySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-0", "seasonNumber": 0, "tradeableSymbols": 5, "cryptoSymbols": 5, "equitySymbols": 0, "equitySharePct": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-1", "seasonNumber": 1, "tradeableSymbols": 5, "cryptoSymbols": 5, "equitySymbols": 0, "equitySharePct": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-2", "seasonNumber": 2, "tradeableSymbols": 87, "cryptoSymbols": 38, "equitySymbols": 49, "equitySharePct": 56.3 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "tradeableSymbols": 37, "cryptoSymbols": 37, "equitySymbols": 0, "equitySharePct": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "tradeableSymbols": 7, "cryptoSymbols": 7, "equitySymbols": 0, "equitySharePct": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "tradeableSymbols": 10, "cryptoSymbols": 10, "equitySymbols": 0, "equitySharePct": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "seasonNumber": 6, "tradeableSymbols": 10, "cryptoSymbols": 10, "equitySymbols": 0, "equitySharePct": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-7", "seasonNumber": 7, "tradeableSymbols": 60, "cryptoSymbols": 10, "equitySymbols": 50, "equitySharePct": 83.3 } ], "mostEquityWeightedSeason": { "seasonSlug": "season-7", "seasonNumber": 7, "tradeableSymbols": 60, "cryptoSymbols": 10, "equitySymbols": 50, "equitySharePct": 83.3 }, "runnerUpEquityWeightedSeason": { "seasonSlug": "season-2", "seasonNumber": 2, "tradeableSymbols": 87, "cryptoSymbols": 38, "equitySymbols": 49, "equitySharePct": 56.3 }, "nSeasonsWithZeroEquity": 6 }, "calendar": { "usMarketHolidaysConsidered": false, "weekdayRule": "A day is a weekend day when its UTC weekday is Saturday or Sunday. No US market holiday calendar is applied, so a weekday here can still have been a closed session (usMarketHolidaysConsidered: false).", "seasonOpenedOnWeekday": "Saturday", "trackedDays": 17, "byDayType": [ { "dayType": "weekend", "days": 6, "dates": [ "2026-07-18", "2026-07-19", "2026-07-25", "2026-07-26", "2026-08-01", "2026-08-02" ], "cryptoLegs": 19, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 19, "equitySharePctOfLegs": 0 }, { "dayType": "weekday", "days": 11, "dates": [ "2026-07-20", "2026-07-21", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-23", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-27", "2026-07-28", "2026-07-29", "2026-07-30", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-03" ], "cryptoLegs": 18, "equityLegs": 28, "totalLegs": 46, "equitySharePctOfLegs": 60.9 } ], "equitySharePctOfWeekdayLegs": 60.9, "equitySharePctOfAllLegs": 43.1, "equitySharePctOfMenu": 83.3, "weekdayMinusMenuPctPoints": -22.4 }, "openingCycle": { "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "cyclesCovered": 2, "cyclesCaveat": "The opening day ran two cycles. Only the first cycle’s decision entries survived the loss of host fv1, so this census covers one cycle of one day.", "nEntries": 12, "nActed": 10, "nAllCash": 2, "nShorts": 0, "shortSellingAllowed": true, "nOpensByClass": [ { "assetClass": "crypto", "opens": 10 }, { "assetClass": "equity", "opens": 0 } ], "openedAssets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto", "opens": 5 }, { "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "opens": 5 } ], "allCashModels": [ "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "Gemini 3.5 Flash" ], "firstDecisionIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:01.440Z", "lastDecisionIso": "2026-07-18T13:38:07.334Z", "lateJoinerModels": [ "Inkling" ], "nInOpeningBurst": 11, "openingBurstEndIso": "2026-07-18T05:43:58.611Z", "entries": [ { "agentId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:51.796Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:10.184Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:32.692Z", "nDecisions": 0, "actions": [], "assets": [], "allCash": true, "rawKeywordHits": 1, "adjudicatedReferences": 1 }, { "agentId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:11.895Z", "nDecisions": 0, "actions": [], "assets": [], "allCash": true, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:42:18.366Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 1, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:01.440Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:43:58.611Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 1, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:11.786Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:05.531Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T13:38:07.334Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ETH", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:41:28.262Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 }, { "agentId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "timestampIso": "2026-07-18T05:42:45.953Z", "nDecisions": 1, "actions": [ "open_long" ], "assets": [ { "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto" } ], "allCash": false, "rawKeywordHits": 0, "adjudicatedReferences": 0 } ] }, "equityReferences": { "pattern": "equit|stock|share|SPY|S&P|NVDA|AAPL|MSFT|Monday|weekend|market clos|session", "patternFlags": "gi", "exclusionRule": "a match on the \"equit\" token immediately preceded by \"of\" (with or without a leading percentage, e.g. \"30% of equity\") is capital-sizing usage, not a reference to the equity market, and is excluded from the adjudicated count.", "nEntriesScanned": 12, "rawKeywordHits": 3, "rawKeywordHitModels": [ "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "MiniMax M3", "Kimi K3" ], "adjudicatedReferences": 1, "adjudicatedModels": [ "DeepSeek V4 Pro" ], "referenceQuote": "lts, suggesting a possible medium-term bottom, but the recovery lacks conviction. With no equity market today, I find no high-conviction setup meeting the 0.80 confidence threshold", "referenceSentence": "With no equity market today, I find no high-conviction setup meeting the 0.80 confidence threshold.", "excludedHits": [ { "agentId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "keyword": "equit", "quote": "ion. | Best relative strength play in a rangebound market; small starter position (15% of equity) to test the thesis with defined risk on both sides.", "sentence": "Best relative strength play in a rangebound market; small starter position (15% of equity) to test the thesis with defined risk on both sides.", "exclusionRule": "a match on the \"equit\" token immediately preceded by \"of\" (with or without a leading percentage, e.g. \"30% of equity\") is capital-sizing usage, not a reference to the equity market, and is excluded from the adjudicated count." }, { "agentId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "keyword": "equit", "quote": "the strongest liquid major on a low-volume pullback to breakout support, sized at 30% of equity with a ~5% structural invalidation.", "sentence": "Buying the strongest liquid major on a low-volume pullback to breakout support, sized at 30% of equity with a ~5% structural invalidation.", "exclusionRule": "a match on the \"equit\" token immediately preceded by \"of\" (with or without a leading percentage, e.g. \"30% of equity\") is capital-sizing usage, not a reference to the equity market, and is excluded from the adjudicated count." } ], "adjudicatedHits": [ { "agentId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "keyword": "equit", "quote": "lts, suggesting a possible medium-term bottom, but the recovery lacks conviction. With no equity market today, I find no high-conviction setup meeting the 0.80 confidence threshold", "sentence": "With no equity market today, I find no high-conviction setup meeting the 0.80 confidence threshold.", "exclusionRule": null } ], "caveat": "A model can act on the closed equity market without narrating it. This counts what was written in the surviving opening-cycle text, not what was understood." }, "trackedRecord": { "windowStartDate": "2026-07-18", "windowEndDate": "2026-08-03", "dailyReportDays": 17, "journalDays": 27, "journalOnlyDays": 10, "journalOnlyNote": "Days 18-27 (after 2026-08-03, through 2026-08-13) survive only as season-journal entries: a leader, a biggest gain and loss, and a one-line summary. No per-model trade detail exists for them, so every trade statistic here stops at day 17.", "nLegs": 65, "byAction": [ { "action": "BUY", "legs": 43 }, { "action": "SELL", "legs": 22 } ], "byClass": [ { "assetClass": "crypto", "legs": 37, "sharePct": 56.9 }, { "assetClass": "equity", "legs": 28, "sharePct": 43.1 } ], "perDay": [ { "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "dayNumber": 1, "weekday": "Saturday", "dayType": "weekend", "cyclesCovered": 2, "cryptoLegs": 5, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-19", "dayNumber": 2, "weekday": "Sunday", "dayType": "weekend", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 3 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "dayNumber": 3, "weekday": "Monday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 2, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-21", "dayNumber": 4, "weekday": "Tuesday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 2, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-22", "dayNumber": 5, "weekday": "Wednesday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 2, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-23", "dayNumber": 6, "weekday": "Thursday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 0, "equityLegs": 1, "totalLegs": 1 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "dayNumber": 7, "weekday": "Friday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 4, "equityLegs": 1, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-25", "dayNumber": 8, "weekday": "Saturday", "dayType": "weekend", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 2, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 2 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-26", "dayNumber": 9, "weekday": "Sunday", "dayType": "weekend", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 3 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "dayNumber": 10, "weekday": "Monday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 0, "equityLegs": 5, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-28", "dayNumber": 11, "weekday": "Tuesday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 1, "equityLegs": 3, "totalLegs": 4 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-29", "dayNumber": 12, "weekday": "Wednesday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 1, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 1 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "dayNumber": 13, "weekday": "Thursday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 1, "equityLegs": 4, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-31", "dayNumber": 14, "weekday": "Friday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 1, "equityLegs": 4, "totalLegs": 5 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-01", "dayNumber": 15, "weekday": "Saturday", "dayType": "weekend", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 2, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 2 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-02", "dayNumber": 16, "weekday": "Sunday", "dayType": "weekend", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 4, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 4 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "dayNumber": 17, "weekday": "Monday", "dayType": "weekday", "cyclesCovered": 1, "cryptoLegs": 1, "equityLegs": 4, "totalLegs": 5 } ], "firstEquityLeg": { "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "dayNumber": 3, "weekday": "Monday", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "asset": "NVDA", "label": "the tracked record's first equity trade" }, "halves": [ { "label": "days 1-8", "firstDay": 1, "lastDay": 8, "cryptoLegs": 23, "equityLegs": 8, "totalLegs": 31, "equitySharePctOfLegs": 25.8 }, { "label": "days 9-17", "firstDay": 9, "lastDay": 17, "cryptoLegs": 14, "equityLegs": 20, "totalLegs": 34, "equitySharePctOfLegs": 58.8 } ], "weekdayHalves": [ { "label": "days 1-8, weekdays only", "firstDay": 1, "lastDay": 8, "cryptoLegs": 13, "equityLegs": 8, "totalLegs": 21, "equitySharePctOfLegs": 38.1 }, { "label": "days 9-17, weekdays only", "firstDay": 9, "lastDay": 17, "cryptoLegs": 5, "equityLegs": 20, "totalLegs": 25, "equitySharePctOfLegs": 80 } ], "breadth": [ { "assetClass": "crypto", "symbolsAvailable": 10, "symbolsTraded": 5, "sharePctOfMenu": 50, "symbols": [ "BNB", "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "ZEC" ] }, { "assetClass": "equity", "symbolsAvailable": 50, "symbolsTraded": 7, "sharePctOfMenu": 14, "symbols": [ "AAPL", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "JNJ", "MSFT", "NVDA", "PM" ] } ], "perModel": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "cryptoLegs": 2, "equityLegs": 1, "totalLegs": 3, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 3, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": false }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "cryptoLegs": 3, "equityLegs": 3, "totalLegs": 6, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "cryptoLegs": 2, "equityLegs": 5, "totalLegs": 7, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "cryptoLegs": 4, "equityLegs": 7, "totalLegs": 11, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "cryptoLegs": 1, "equityLegs": 2, "totalLegs": 3, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "cryptoLegs": 2, "equityLegs": 1, "totalLegs": 3, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "cryptoLegs": 6, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 6, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": false }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "cryptoLegs": 2, "equityLegs": 1, "totalLegs": 3, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "cryptoLegs": 5, "equityLegs": 0, "totalLegs": 5, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": false }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "cryptoLegs": 7, "equityLegs": 2, "totalLegs": 9, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true }, { "rank": 12, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "cryptoLegs": 0, "equityLegs": 6, "totalLegs": 6, "tradedEquityInTrackedRecord": true } ], "modelsWithNoTrackedEquityLeg": [ "Mistral Medium 3.5", "MiniMax M3", "Inkling" ] }, "coverage": { "curationRule": "The daily report generator selects notable trades at most five a day - one to five in practice - so the tracked record is right-censored and is a lower bound on the season's trading, never an estimate of it.", "minLegsPerDay": 1, "maxLegsPerDay": 5, "seasonClosedTradesBasis": "The standings field totalTrades counts CLOSED LEGS - trades carrying a non-null realizedPnL, per competition-metrics.ts calculateTradeStats - and is not a count of executions. The tracked daily record counts executions, so the two are only comparable on their closes.", "seasonClosedTrades": 38, "trackedExecutions": 65, "trackedCloses": 22, "coveragePct": 57.9, "perModel": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "trackedCloses": 1, "coveragePct": 50 }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "seasonClosedTrades": 1, "trackedCloses": 1, "coveragePct": 100 }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "seasonClosedTrades": 4, "trackedCloses": 2, "coveragePct": 50 }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "seasonClosedTrades": 3, "trackedCloses": 3, "coveragePct": 100 }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "seasonClosedTrades": 8, "trackedCloses": 4, "coveragePct": 50 }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "trackedCloses": 1, "coveragePct": 50 }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "trackedCloses": 1, "coveragePct": 50 }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "trackedCloses": 2, "coveragePct": 100 }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "trackedCloses": 1, "coveragePct": 50 }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "trackedCloses": 2, "coveragePct": 100 }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "seasonClosedTrades": 5, "trackedCloses": 2, "coveragePct": 40 }, { "rank": 12, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "seasonClosedTrades": 5, "trackedCloses": 2, "coveragePct": 40 } ], "nModelsFullyCovered": 4, "coveragePctMin": 40, "coveragePctMax": 100, "unpairedCloses": [ { "dateIso": "2026-07-22", "dayNumber": 5, "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "result": "-$222.20" }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "dayNumber": 7, "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "result": "-$250.45" }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-25", "dayNumber": 8, "modelName": "Inkling", "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "result": "-$415.44" }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-26", "dayNumber": 9, "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "asset": "ZEC", "assetClass": "crypto", "result": "-$281.22" }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "dayNumber": 10, "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "asset": "NVDA", "assetClass": "equity", "result": "-$71.92" }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "dayNumber": 17, "modelName": "Kimi K3", "asset": "AMZN", "assetClass": "equity", "result": "+$26.90" } ], "unpairedClosesNote": "Closes whose opening trade never appears in the tracked record. Each one is a position the daily desk did not select on the day it was opened, which is direct evidence that the record samples rather than enumerates." }, "crossClassOutcomes": { "basis": "Closed legs the Season 7 daily record tracked, days 1-17 - a curated subset, not the season's trade log, which was lost with host fv1.", "nCloses": 22, "byClass": [ { "assetClass": "crypto", "nCloses": 13, "nWinners": 0, "winRatePct": 0, "totalPnL": -3162.01, "medianPnL": -222.2, "worstPnL": -677.62, "bestPnL": -46.16 }, { "assetClass": "equity", "nCloses": 9, "nWinners": 2, "winRatePct": 22.2, "totalPnL": -867.91, "medianPnL": -71.92, "worstPnL": -239.41, "bestPnL": 45.04 } ], "selectionBias": { "perModel": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 50, "impliedWins": 1 }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "seasonClosedTrades": 1, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "seasonClosedTrades": 4, "winRatePct": 50, "impliedWins": 2 }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "seasonClosedTrades": 3, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "seasonClosedTrades": 8, "winRatePct": 62.5, "impliedWins": 5 }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "seasonClosedTrades": 5, "winRatePct": 60, "impliedWins": 3 }, { "rank": 12, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "seasonClosedTrades": 5, "winRatePct": 0, "impliedWins": 0 } ], "seasonClosedTrades": 38, "seasonImpliedWins": 11, "seasonImpliedWinRatePct": 28.9, "trackedCloses": 22, "trackedWins": 2, "trackedWinRatePct": 9.1, "overSamplingRatio": 3.2, "nModelsWithAnyWin": 4, "nModelsZeroWinRate": 8, "lowerBoundStatement": "The tracked record won 2 of 22 closes (9.1%) while the season standings imply 11 wins across 38 closed trades (28.9%). The daily desk over-sampled losing closes, so every P&L figure drawn from the tracked record is a LOWER BOUND on the season's book, not an estimate of it." } }, "coMovement": { "nDays": 16, "firstDate": "2026-07-19", "lastDate": "2026-08-03", "excludedDays": [ { "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "dayNumber": 1, "reason": "Day 1 ran two cycles (cyclesCovered 2) while every other day ran one, so its day change is not on the same footing as the rest of the series." } ], "fieldMeanVsBtcR": 0.611, "fieldMeanVsEthR": 0.459, "signAgreementDays": 9, "signAgreementPct": 56.3, "signAgreementPValueVsCoin": 0.803619, "perModel": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "rVsBtc": 0.544, "rVsEth": 0.461 }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "rVsBtc": 0.777, "rVsEth": 0.748 }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "rVsBtc": 0.159, "rVsEth": 0.064 }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "rVsBtc": 0.329, "rVsEth": 0.203 }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "rVsBtc": 0.66, "rVsEth": 0.596 }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "rVsBtc": 0.525, "rVsEth": 0.327 }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "rVsBtc": 0.074, "rVsEth": -0.096 }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "rVsBtc": 0.548, "rVsEth": 0.603 }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "rVsBtc": 0.589, "rVsEth": 0.426 }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "rVsBtc": 0.569, "rVsEth": 0.387 }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "rVsBtc": 0.277, "rVsEth": 0.1 }, { "rank": 12, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "rVsBtc": 0.481, "rVsEth": 0.301 } ], "nModelsPositiveVsBtc": 12, "weakestModelVsBtc": { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "rVsBtc": 0.074, "rVsEth": -0.096 }, "strongestModelVsBtc": { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "rVsBtc": 0.777, "rVsEth": 0.748 }, "signTestComputed": false, "signTestWithheldReason": "The twelve models are not independent observations. They trade one universe on one daily cycle, so their correlations share most of their variance and no twelve-of-twelve sign test is computed from them.", "caveats": [ "The twelve models are not independent observations. They trade one universe on one daily cycle, so their correlations share most of their variance and no twelve-of-twelve sign test is computed from them.", "BTC was never tradeable in Season 7. A correlation with BTC is crypto beta arriving through the ten tradeable coins, not a position in Bitcoin.", "Holding crypto through six weekend days, when the equity book cannot move at all, mechanically manufactures part of this co-movement." ] }, "seasonOutcome": { "modelReturnsFromDate": "2026-07-18", "modelReturnsToDate": "2026-08-13", "benchmarks": [ { "symbol": "SPY", "label": "the S&P 500", "returnPct": 4.17, "sinceDate": "2026-07-20", "asOfDate": "2026-08-13", "modelsBeating": 0, "modelsPositive": 3 }, { "symbol": "BTC", "label": "Bitcoin", "returnPct": -2.54, "sinceDate": "2026-07-19", "asOfDate": "2026-08-13", "modelsBeating": 7, "modelsPositive": 3 } ], "baselineDateNote": "Model returns run from 2026-07-18; the SPY baseline starts 2026-07-20 and the BTC baseline 2026-07-19, both measured at the 2026-08-13 close. The three windows are not the same window and the difference is never netted out.", "nModelsBeatingSpy": 0, "nModelsBeatingBtc": 7, "modelsBeatingBtc": [ "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "Mistral Medium 3.5", "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "Kimi K3", "Qwen 3.7 Max", "Grok 4.5" ], "nModelsPositive": 3, "fieldSpreadPoints": 9.33, "bestModel": { "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "returnPct": 1.98 }, "worstModel": { "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "returnPct": -7.35 }, "standings": [ { "rank": 1, "modelId": "nvidia", "modelName": "Nemotron 3 Ultra", "provider": "NVIDIA", "returnPct": 1.98, "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 50, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.7193, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 2, "modelId": "mistral", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "provider": "Mistral AI", "returnPct": 1.3, "seasonClosedTrades": 1, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 1.7929, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 3, "modelId": "deepseek", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "provider": "DeepSeek", "returnPct": 0.9, "seasonClosedTrades": 4, "winRatePct": 50, "maxDrawdownPct": 3.5267, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 4, "modelId": "google", "modelName": "Gemini 3.5 Flash", "provider": "Google", "returnPct": -0.52, "seasonClosedTrades": 3, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.4959, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 5, "modelId": "moonshot", "modelName": "Kimi K3", "provider": "Moonshot AI", "returnPct": -1.37, "seasonClosedTrades": 8, "winRatePct": 62.5, "maxDrawdownPct": 5.4089, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 6, "modelId": "alibaba", "modelName": "Qwen 3.7 Max", "provider": "Alibaba", "returnPct": -2.23, "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.5635, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 7, "modelId": "xai", "modelName": "Grok 4.5", "provider": "xAI", "returnPct": -2.44, "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.4883, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": true }, { "rank": 8, "modelId": "minimax", "modelName": "MiniMax M3", "provider": "MiniMax", "returnPct": -2.85, "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 3.2516, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": false }, { "rank": 9, "modelId": "anthropic", "modelName": "Claude Fable 5", "provider": "Anthropic", "returnPct": -3.32, "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.0214, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": false }, { "rank": 10, "modelId": "thinkingmachines", "modelName": "Inkling", "provider": "Thinking Machines", "returnPct": -4.58, "seasonClosedTrades": 2, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 5.8916, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": false }, { "rank": 11, "modelId": "zhipu", "modelName": "GLM-5.2", "provider": "Zhipu AI", "returnPct": -5.16, "seasonClosedTrades": 5, "winRatePct": 60, "maxDrawdownPct": 9.7966, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": false }, { "rank": 12, "modelId": "openai", "modelName": "GPT-5.6", "provider": "OpenAI", "returnPct": -7.35, "seasonClosedTrades": 5, "winRatePct": 0, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.5024, "beatSpy": false, "beatBtc": false } ] }, "benchmarkDailySeries": { "btc": [ { "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "dayNumber": 1, "price": 64834.22, "changePct": 1.41 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-19", "dayNumber": 2, "price": 64722.54, "changePct": -0.17 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "dayNumber": 3, "price": 65255.51, "changePct": 0.82 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-21", "dayNumber": 4, "price": 66556.16, "changePct": 1.99 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-22", "dayNumber": 5, "price": 66114.49, "changePct": -0.66 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-23", "dayNumber": 6, "price": 65098.97, "changePct": -1.54 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "dayNumber": 7, "price": 64139.99, "changePct": -1.47 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-25", "dayNumber": 8, "price": 64375, "changePct": 0.37 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-26", "dayNumber": 9, "price": 65399.99, "changePct": 1.59 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "dayNumber": 10, "price": 63755.86, "changePct": -2.51 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-28", "dayNumber": 11, "price": 63915, "changePct": 0.25 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-29", "dayNumber": 12, "price": 63984.28, "changePct": 0.11 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "dayNumber": 13, "price": 64733.96, "changePct": 1.2 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-31", "dayNumber": 14, "price": 62887.88, "changePct": -2.92 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-01", "dayNumber": 15, "price": 62823.64, "changePct": -0.1 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-02", "dayNumber": 16, "price": 63570, "changePct": 1.19 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "dayNumber": 17, "price": 63520, "changePct": -0.08 } ], "eth": [ { "dateIso": "2026-07-18", "dayNumber": 1, "price": 1862.61, "changePct": 1.12 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-19", "dayNumber": 2, "price": 1872.23, "changePct": 0.52 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-20", "dayNumber": 3, "price": 1904.77, "changePct": 1.74 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-21", "dayNumber": 4, "price": 1930.09, "changePct": 1.33 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-22", "dayNumber": 5, "price": 1934.25, "changePct": 0.22 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-23", "dayNumber": 6, "price": 1878.38, "changePct": -2.89 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-24", "dayNumber": 7, "price": 1861.44, "changePct": -0.9 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-25", "dayNumber": 8, "price": 1874.89, "changePct": 0.72 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-26", "dayNumber": 9, "price": 1954.72, "changePct": 4.26 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-27", "dayNumber": 10, "price": 1892.53, "changePct": -3.18 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-28", "dayNumber": 11, "price": 1922.23, "changePct": 1.57 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-29", "dayNumber": 12, "price": 1910.72, "changePct": -0.6 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-30", "dayNumber": 13, "price": 1919.24, "changePct": 1.42 }, { "dateIso": "2026-07-31", "dayNumber": 14, "price": 1862.6, "changePct": -2.9 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-01", "dayNumber": 15, "price": 1844.94, "changePct": -0.95 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-02", "dayNumber": 16, "price": 1885.36, "changePct": 2.19 }, { "dateIso": "2026-08-03", "dayNumber": 17, "price": 1860.5, "changePct": -1.32 } ], "spy": null, "spyProseMentionFiles": 5, "spyNullReason": "No per-day SPY series exists for Season 7. The daily reports carry only BTC and ETH quotes in marketContext; SPY appears in five of the seventeen files as narrative prose, and prose is never parsed for numbers here. The equity-side version of the co-movement question cannot be answered from this data." }, "methodology": { "assetClassSource": "src/config/universe.ts through resolveAssetClass in src/seo/pillar-stats/asset-class.ts, plus its explicit retired-symbol table. An unclassifiable symbol stops the run.", "trackedRecordSource": "notableTrades in the seventeen Season 7 daily reports, 2026-07-18 to 2026-08-03. These are executions selected by the daily-report generator, three to five a day.", "closeDefinition": "A tracked leg is a realized close exactly when its result field is a signed dollar amount (/^[+-]\\$/). \"OPEN\" and any other placeholder is not a close.", "calendarRule": "Weekend and weekday come from the UTC weekday of the report date. No US holiday calendar is applied.", "equityReferenceRule": "Case-insensitive keyword pass (equit|stock|share|SPY|S&P|NVDA|AAPL|MSFT|Monday|weekend|market clos|session) over each surviving day-1 entry’s overall assessment and decision reasoning, then one adjudication: a match on the \"equit\" token immediately preceded by \"of\" (with or without a leading percentage, e.g. \"30% of equity\") is capital-sizing usage, not a reference to the equity market, and is excluded from the adjudicated count. Both counts are published.", "coMovementRule": "Pearson correlation between a series of daily percentage changes over days 2-17. Day 1 is excluded because it ran two cycles. The field mean is the unweighted mean of the twelve models’ day changes on each day.", "selectionBiasRule": "Implied season wins per model are winRate x totalTrades / 100 from the standings snapshot, asserted to be an exact integer. Compared against the tracked record’s own win count on the same definition of a close." }, "limitations": [ "Season 7 is PROVISIONAL. Host fv1 went offline 2026-08-14 with season-7 raw state on its disk only; the gdrive backup had been dead since 2026-05-12. When fv1 is recovered (~September 2026), run the real scripts/end-season-7.ts and replace this archive wholesale.", "totalTrades, winRate and maxDrawdownPct come from a snapshot one cycle before the season ended; returnPct and rank come from a later one. The vintages block names both and they are never presented as one reading.", "realizedPnL, unrealizedPnL, totalFees and totalVolume are unavailable for every model. They are null in the archive and no substitute is computed.", "No equity-history.json survived, so there is no per-cycle capital exposure series for Season 7 and the exposure metric this repo computes for other seasons in src/seo/pillar-stats/asset-class.ts cannot be computed here at all.", "No trade log survived, so no FIFO leg matching, no hold times, no fees per trade, and no per-model equity curve.", "The tracked record covers days 1-17 of 27. Days 18-27 exist only as season-journal entries and carry no per-model trade detail.", "Per-decision confidence and the full decision history beyond the opening cycle were lost with host fv1 and are not reconstructed." ] }