{ "schemaVersion": "provider-pair-v1", "snapshotThrough": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "slug": "mistral-vs-grok-for-trading", "status": "eligible", "holdReason": null, "primaryQuery": "Mistral vs Grok for trading", "aliases": [ "grok-vs-mistral-for-trading" ], "families": [ { "key": "mistral", "family": "Mistral", "provider": "Mistral AI", "routeSlot": "mistral-medium-3-5", "versionsBySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "modelId": "mistral-medium-3-5", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "seasonNumber": 6, "modelId": "mistral-medium-3-5", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null } ] }, { "key": "xai", "family": "Grok", "provider": "xAI", "routeSlot": "grok-4-20", "versionsBySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "seasonNumber": 6, "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null } ] } ], "sharedCompletedSeasons": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "seasonName": "Season 5", "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "durationDays": 28, "fieldSize": 10, "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "mistral-medium-3-5", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "rank": 3, "returnPct": 9.548655220851833, "comparabilityReturnPct": 9.548655220851833, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 7.938807600628254, "realizedPnL": 180.3915035687678, "unrealizedPnL": 774.4740185164155, "totalPnL": 954.8655220851833, "totalTrades": 6, "winRate": 83.33333333333334, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.938807600628254 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "rank": 7, "returnPct": 0.48193702650030895, "comparabilityReturnPct": 0.48193702650030895, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 7.272031100908443, "realizedPnL": -839.6082271979528, "unrealizedPnL": 887.8019298479837, "totalPnL": 48.1937026500309, "totalTrades": 15, "winRate": 46.666666666666664, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.272031100908443 }, "winner": "A", "returnGapPct": 9.066718194351523 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "seasonNumber": 6, "seasonName": "Season 6", "startDate": "2026-06-20", "endDate": "2026-07-18", "durationDays": 28, "fieldSize": 11, "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "forced-liquidation", "familyA": { "modelId": "mistral-medium-3-5", "modelName": "Mistral Medium 3.5", "rank": 9, "returnPct": -2.950828972111576, "comparabilityReturnPct": -3.0240626480009087, "comparabilityBasis": "pre-liquidation-snapshot", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 6.240626083535608, "realizedPnL": -276.2363472111601, "unrealizedPnL": -18.846549999997535, "totalPnL": -295.0828972111576, "totalTrades": 8, "winRate": 25, "maxDrawdownPct": 6.240626083535608 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "rank": 11, "returnPct": -4.076055340613166, "comparabilityReturnPct": -3.9057109313627736, "comparabilityBasis": "pre-liquidation-snapshot", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 7.597215990456367, "realizedPnL": -390.60953406131466, "unrealizedPnL": -16.996000000001914, "totalPnL": -407.6055340613166, "totalTrades": 13, "winRate": 7.6923076923076925, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.597215990456367 }, "winner": "A", "returnGapPct": 0.8816482833618648 } ], "headToHead": { "seasonsPlayed": 2, "familyAWins": 2, "familyBWins": 0, "ties": 0, "medianReturnGapPct": 4.9741832388566944, "averageReturnGapPct": 4.9741832388566944, "rankReversals": 0 }, "behavior": { "tradeCount": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 6, "familyBValue": 15 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "familyAValue": 8, "familyBValue": 13 } ], "winRate": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 83.33333333333334, "familyBValue": 46.666666666666664 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "familyAValue": 25, "familyBValue": 7.6923076923076925 } ], "maxDrawdownPct": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 7.938807600628254, "familyBValue": 7.272031100908443 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "familyAValue": 6.240626083535608, "familyBValue": 7.597215990456367 } ], "directionMix": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 0.16666666666666666, "familyBValue": 0.375 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "familyAValue": 0.5, "familyBValue": 0.23076923076923078 } ] }, "representativeDecisions": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "mistral", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-05-23T17:34:57.428Z", "action": "open_long", "asset": "TRX", "reasoning": "Weekly EMA-26 bullish (+30), daily EMA-26 bullish (+25), composite=55 (BULLISH) >=50, 4h confirms bullish bias. Only symbol meeting all entry rules.", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 13.586178184845949, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/mistral-medium-3-5.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "mistral", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-06-16T16:00:26.039Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "DOGE", "reasoning": "Strongest bearish consensus (70/100) with full weekly/daily/4h EMA agreement and RSI(1d)=39.17 in optimal shorting zone", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -2.2187013076395488, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/mistral-medium-3-5.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-05-25T16:00:22.307Z", "action": "open_long", "asset": "TRX", "reasoning": "Weekly+Daily+4h all above EMA-26, composite 70, satisfies all entry criteria", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 13.326288103587899, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-05-23T17:34:52.785Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ETH", "reasoning": "Weekly and daily both below EMA-26; 70 composite score, full TF alignment.", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -14.895140553497413, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" } ], "reasoningExcerpts": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "mistral", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-05-23T17:34:57.428Z", "asset": "TRX", "action": "open_long", "quote": "Weekly EMA-26 bullish (+30), daily EMA-26 bullish (+25), composite=55 (BULLISH) >=50, 4h confirms bullish bias. Only symbol meeting all entry rules.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/mistral-medium-3-5.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "mistral", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-06-16T16:00:26.039Z", "asset": "DOGE", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Strongest bearish consensus (70/100) with full weekly/daily/4h EMA agreement and RSI(1d)=39.17 in optimal shorting zone", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/mistral-medium-3-5.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-05-25T16:00:22.307Z", "asset": "TRX", "action": "open_long", "quote": "Weekly+Daily+4h all above EMA-26, composite 70, satisfies all entry criteria", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-05-23T17:34:52.785Z", "asset": "ETH", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly and daily both below EMA-26; 70 composite score, full TF alignment.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" } ], "methodology": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-6", "seasonNumber": 6, "startDate": "2026-06-20", "endDate": "2026-07-18", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "forced-liquidation", "eraNotes": [ "model: GPT-5.5 → GPT-5.6 (era boundary unprovable — excluded from version-specific claims). GPT-5.5 → GPT-5.6 mid-season; season metadata overwritten in place.", "model: Claude Opus 4.8 → Claude Fable 5 (era boundary unprovable — excluded from version-specific claims). Claude Opus 4.8 → Fable 5 handover mid-season; decision records carry stable slot ids only.", "universe: crypto only → crypto + US equities (era boundary unprovable — excluded from version-specific claims). US equities added mid-season; exact boundary cycle not preserved.", "prompt: day-trader prompt → medium-term investor prompt (thesis + invalidation continuity) (effective 2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z). Investor-prompt rewrite landed 2026-07-09 (CLAUDE.md \"investor regime since 2026-07-09\"); date is known even though the exact cycle index is not.", "rule: crypto cycles only → US market-day gating for equity actions/screening (effective 2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z). Equity market-day gating (src/market-data/market-calendar.ts) landed with the same 2026-07-09 investor regime change." ] } ], "limitations": [ "returnPct includes unrealized P&L; realized and unrealized are reported separately per season (a season winner has previously carried negative realized P&L while leading on unrealized gains).", "Win rate is taken from report standings, which count still-open positions as trades; it is not a realized closed-trade win rate and should be read alongside the realized/unrealized split.", "Representative-decision outcomes are position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill. Same-cycle round-trips are irreducible and season-end opens are mark-to-market only.", "Cross-season comparison only: prompts, model versions, cadence, asset universe and market regimes changed between seasons — these are not one controlled experiment.", "Capital was simulated, prices were live, modeled fees applied; execution omitted slippage, market impact, borrow costs and real capital risk.", "Samples are short (2 shared completed seasons); behavior is described with sample size, never as a permanent trait of Mistral or Grok.", "Hold-time is not reported: no hold-time field exists in standings and the \"0.0 hours\" text in report prose is a placeholder, not a measurement. Profit factor is not archived and is omitted.", "One or more seasons were force-liquidated at close (every position sold, fee-bearing); the official standings reflect that post-liquidation snapshot, but cross-season return aggregates use each season's comparabilityReturnPct — the last pre-liquidation daily snapshot for force-liquidated seasons, report standings otherwise — so seasons that retained open exposure stay comparable. The finalization basis differs across seasons." ], "sourceFiles": [ { "path": "data/competitions/season-5.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:3f3a83589fb1165b4da34cf0db0a848c0ae93728fbfb101aae32623985bf3c90", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:355d8efd9bcf45c668b0b54aa9e8cacbfb73aea5ef4a06c42727c5c6fda6dc99", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/mistral-medium-3-5.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:7fc321addc7af82e4b5c62eeeffd40c2fd0002344428038e63a14921e316fa96", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "mistral-medium-3-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:d86f23f814afb8c5834fa39f5916e92c14cb75fbd3524293216c0a058005261e", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:192cc557fe6b452fe334cf7dfd50b12aacb739f908e5d9576eb56bcdeade0ae6", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-6.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:0e4afad118a61d364fc573c3714eb427530df8f382008f714b83f65e7599b031", "seasonSlug": "season-6" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-6/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:2c874e0f3b0d8c7b1b34730f9c1b59324ba6f9b4341545f55b3ea8cbef4837b7", "seasonSlug": "season-6", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-6/decision-history/mistral-medium-3-5.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:89a5863c2c9bed7bf724d76166a6924cfe8bc29889ffc329c8c6c3bc5973dbfb", "seasonSlug": "season-6", "modelId": "mistral-medium-3-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-6/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:5b6203945e1c932c98190478f8e323b2aaa4fb37c950052efa53dc992ac62c41", "seasonSlug": "season-6" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-6/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:2e03c9ccc64520043bd1369db43cb5b2221e9375f8e2b74ef7908560f38062e4", "seasonSlug": "season-6" } ], "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:5004e5d25eebce549a64756d37e8dd03df71931395aa0a91ed758f2d1f633bcb" }