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and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:01:24.176Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "XRP", "reasoning": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 both bearish (composite 70), meets all entry rules; 4h supplementary confirmation", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -7.223467109492276, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "qwen", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:02:30.209Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ADA", "reasoning": "Weekly and Daily trend aligned bearish (-70 trend score), composite 70/100. RSI neutral.", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 1.9115958668197663, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "qwen", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-25T16:01:37.984Z", "action": "open_long", "asset": "HYPE", "reasoning": "Score 70/100 Bullish. Full timeframe bullish alignment. RSI(1d) 62.5 supports upside momentum.", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -41.184635801014565, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json" } ], "reasoningExcerpts": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:35.989Z", "asset": "ADA", "action": "open_short", "quote": "70/100 BEARISH with full -70 trend alignment (1w▼, 1d▼, 4h▼) and weekly/daily agreement", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:01:24.176Z", "asset": "XRP", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 both bearish (composite 70), meets all entry rules; 4h supplementary confirmation", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "qwen", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:02:30.209Z", "asset": "ADA", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly and Daily trend aligned bearish (-70 trend score), composite 70/100. RSI neutral.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "qwen", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-25T16:01:37.984Z", "asset": "HYPE", "action": "open_long", "quote": "Score 70/100 Bullish. Full timeframe bullish alignment. RSI(1d) 62.5 supports upside momentum.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json" } ], "methodology": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "startDate": "2026-03-23", "endDate": "2026-04-26", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "BNB", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ADA", "AVAX", "LINK", "DOT", "MATIC", "UNI", "ATOM", "LTC", "ETC", "FIL", "APT", "ARB", "OP", "NEAR", "SUI", "AAVE", "PENGU", "HYPE", "PURR", "CRV", "SNX", "COMP", "SUSHI", "IMX", "STX", "INJ", "TIA", "SEI", "MANTA", "BLUR", "PENDLE", "ZORA" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "37 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "startDate": "2026-04-26", "endDate": "2026-05-23", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TAO" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "7 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] } ], "limitations": [ "returnPct includes unrealized P&L; realized and unrealized are reported separately per season (a season winner has previously carried negative realized P&L while leading on unrealized gains).", "Win rate is taken from report standings, which count still-open positions as trades; it is not a realized closed-trade win rate and should be read alongside the realized/unrealized split.", "Representative-decision outcomes are position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill. Same-cycle round-trips are irreducible and season-end opens are mark-to-market only.", "Cross-season comparison only: prompts, model versions, cadence, asset universe and market regimes changed between seasons — these are not one controlled experiment.", "Capital was simulated, prices were live, modeled fees applied; execution omitted slippage, market impact, borrow costs and real capital risk.", "Samples are short (3 shared completed seasons); behavior is described with sample size, never as a permanent trait of Grok or Qwen.", "Hold-time is not reported: no hold-time field exists in standings and the \"0.0 hours\" text in report prose is a placeholder, not a measurement. Profit factor is not archived and is omitted." ], "sourceFiles": [ { "path": "data/competitions/season-3.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a6dffdc96efb3d67157a251759daa1d6e16dc2fc707a3be4ae700aaeeb319055", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:87b708cdda57e85c9a8598a514c78badd8f84d23276e7c9e891415e106267212", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:67fc40972a2dd5866762db398a3829c0d0a951e4eb10206bd64ea434410c116d", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "qwen-3-5-plus" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:e1d662bdd0bbcefe502c94632d09061e0112de0f22fafa49106bf00994fd22a0", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:5ca10635840cb176e4b27d5a8c3c6feb8665f9025285a84ad8b7dabc71219376", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a084e6be130ae109483e93322ecca7ac360b1d85c67f6af2fd4786780ab5a94f", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:78731e67d124b248de2b896cc4f138f73751c20e3d9c6173436dda4af18542c7", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:4a089b13bf031f33b4b67a5dc6475f59ce8610dd11a2568aa303513a45b73dd2", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "qwen-3-5-plus" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:cf62eb11aa53ba2b6b8d4088a9ded56eadb442caac06f7ed956b2f3d7ad3968b", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:4c729cc96be4e505fdb1eb1f58e109736180b80a886d0af79c5fc84055a81763", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:3f3a83589fb1165b4da34cf0db0a848c0ae93728fbfb101aae32623985bf3c90", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:355d8efd9bcf45c668b0b54aa9e8cacbfb73aea5ef4a06c42727c5c6fda6dc99", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/qwen-3-5-plus.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:733dcf1e7cd3a50be56c1dd6956f964793396d39ca702495eb286340700668c9", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "qwen-3-5-plus" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:d86f23f814afb8c5834fa39f5916e92c14cb75fbd3524293216c0a058005261e", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:192cc557fe6b452fe334cf7dfd50b12aacb739f908e5d9576eb56bcdeade0ae6", "seasonSlug": "season-5" } ], "generatedAt": "2026-06-20T16:02:23.195Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:bcab9c356973c0e15538150f5533eb9898642b98ba21fa27d40bf212702182f3" }