{ "schemaVersion": "provider-pair-v1", "snapshotThrough": "2026-06-20T16:02:23.195Z", "slug": "grok-vs-deepseek-for-trading", "status": "eligible", "holdReason": null, "primaryQuery": "Grok vs DeepSeek for trading", "aliases": [ "deepseek-vs-grok-for-trading" ], "families": [ { "key": "xai", "family": "Grok", "provider": "xAI", "routeSlot": "grok-4-20", "versionsBySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.20", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.20 MA", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null } ] }, { "key": "deepseek", "family": "DeepSeek", "provider": "DeepSeek", "routeSlot": "deepseek-v3-2", "versionsBySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2", "modelName": "DeepSeek V3.2", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null } ] } ], "sharedCompletedSeasons": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "seasonName": "Season 3", "startDate": "2026-03-23", "endDate": "2026-04-26", "durationDays": 34, "fieldSize": 9, "assetUniverseLabel": "37 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.20", "rank": 9, "returnPct": -15.90491424966556, "comparabilityReturnPct": -15.90491424966556, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "realizedPnL": -1528.3589213720022, "unrealizedPnL": -62.13250359455401, "totalPnL": -1590.4914249665562, "totalTrades": 22, "winRate": 27.27272727272727, "maxDrawdownPct": 19.7209875243943 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2", "modelName": "DeepSeek V3.2", "rank": 8, "returnPct": -11.663853027119858, "comparabilityReturnPct": -11.663853027119858, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "realizedPnL": -1121.7261292461837, "unrealizedPnL": -44.65917346580204, "totalPnL": -1166.3853027119858, "totalTrades": 35, "winRate": 22.857142857142858, "maxDrawdownPct": 12.981700960531143 }, "winner": "B", "returnGapPct": -4.241061222545703 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "seasonName": "Season 4", "startDate": "2026-04-26", "endDate": "2026-05-23", "durationDays": 27, "fieldSize": 9, "assetUniverseLabel": "7 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.20 MA", "rank": 3, "returnPct": 5.340452483173431, "comparabilityReturnPct": 5.340452483173431, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "realizedPnL": -615.9778738671953, "unrealizedPnL": 1150.0231221845384, "totalPnL": 534.0452483173431, "totalTrades": 18, "winRate": 16.666666666666664, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.336819824310839 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "rank": 2, "returnPct": 5.401997959018772, "comparabilityReturnPct": 5.401997959018772, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "realizedPnL": 258.8767203108275, "unrealizedPnL": 281.3230755910497, "totalPnL": 540.1997959018772, "totalTrades": 13, "winRate": 30.76923076923077, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.539932192635219 }, "winner": "B", "returnGapPct": -0.06154547584534065 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "seasonName": "Season 5", "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "durationDays": 28, "fieldSize": 10, "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "grok-4-20", "modelName": "Grok 4.3", "rank": 7, "returnPct": 0.48193702650030895, "comparabilityReturnPct": 0.48193702650030895, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "realizedPnL": -839.6082271979528, "unrealizedPnL": 887.8019298479837, "totalPnL": 48.1937026500309, "totalTrades": 15, "winRate": 46.666666666666664, "maxDrawdownPct": 7.272031100908443 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2", "modelName": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", "rank": 2, "returnPct": 11.850514630025518, "comparabilityReturnPct": 11.850514630025518, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "realizedPnL": -226.39538594528173, "unrealizedPnL": 1411.4468489478336, "totalPnL": 1185.0514630025518, "totalTrades": 8, "winRate": 75, "maxDrawdownPct": 9.761975779245795 }, "winner": "B", "returnGapPct": -11.368577603525209 } ], "headToHead": { "seasonsPlayed": 3, "familyAWins": 0, "familyBWins": 3, "ties": 0, "medianReturnGapPct": -4.241061222545703, "averageReturnGapPct": -5.223728100638751, "rankReversals": 0 }, "behavior": { "tradeCount": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 22, "familyBValue": 35 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 18, "familyBValue": 13 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 15, "familyBValue": 8 } ], "winRate": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 27.27272727272727, "familyBValue": 22.857142857142858 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 16.666666666666664, "familyBValue": 30.76923076923077 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 46.666666666666664, "familyBValue": 75 } ], "maxDrawdownPct": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 19.7209875243943, "familyBValue": 12.981700960531143 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 7.336819824310839, "familyBValue": 4.539932192635219 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 7.272031100908443, "familyBValue": 9.761975779245795 } ], "directionMix": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 0.05555555555555555, "familyBValue": 0.07142857142857142 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 0, "familyBValue": 0.2 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 0.375, "familyBValue": 0.23076923076923078 } ] }, "representativeDecisions": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:35.989Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ADA", "reasoning": "70/100 BEARISH with full -70 trend alignment (1w▼, 1d▼, 4h▼) and weekly/daily agreement", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 2.8673938002295927, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:01:24.176Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "XRP", "reasoning": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 both bearish (composite 70), meets all entry rules; 4h supplementary confirmation", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -7.223467109492276, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "deepseek", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:05:16.869Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ADA", "reasoning": "Weekly ▼, Daily ▼, 4h ▼, composite 70. Bearish momentum. Positive funding.", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 2.8673938002295927, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "deepseek", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:05:16.869Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "UNI", "reasoning": "Weekly ▼, Daily ▼, 4h ▼, composite 70. Downtrend intact. Positive funding.", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -14.845032550240603, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json" } ], "reasoningExcerpts": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:35.989Z", "asset": "ADA", "action": "open_short", "quote": "70/100 BEARISH with full -70 trend alignment (1w▼, 1d▼, 4h▼) and weekly/daily agreement", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:01:24.176Z", "asset": "XRP", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 both bearish (composite 70), meets all entry rules; 4h supplementary confirmation", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "deepseek", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:05:16.869Z", "asset": "ADA", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly ▼, Daily ▼, 4h ▼, composite 70. Bearish momentum. Positive funding.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "deepseek", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:05:16.869Z", "asset": "UNI", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly ▼, Daily ▼, 4h ▼, composite 70. Downtrend intact. Positive funding.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json" } ], "methodology": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "startDate": "2026-03-23", "endDate": "2026-04-26", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "BNB", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ADA", "AVAX", "LINK", "DOT", "MATIC", "UNI", "ATOM", "LTC", "ETC", "FIL", "APT", "ARB", "OP", "NEAR", "SUI", "AAVE", "PENGU", "HYPE", "PURR", "CRV", "SNX", "COMP", "SUSHI", "IMX", "STX", "INJ", "TIA", "SEI", "MANTA", "BLUR", "PENDLE", "ZORA" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "37 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "startDate": "2026-04-26", "endDate": "2026-05-23", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TAO" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "7 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] } ], "limitations": [ "returnPct includes unrealized P&L; realized and unrealized are reported separately per season (a season winner has previously carried negative realized P&L while leading on unrealized gains).", "Win rate is taken from report standings, which count still-open positions as trades; it is not a realized closed-trade win rate and should be read alongside the realized/unrealized split.", "Representative-decision outcomes are position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill. Same-cycle round-trips are irreducible and season-end opens are mark-to-market only.", "Cross-season comparison only: prompts, model versions, cadence, asset universe and market regimes changed between seasons — these are not one controlled experiment.", "Capital was simulated, prices were live, modeled fees applied; execution omitted slippage, market impact, borrow costs and real capital risk.", "Samples are short (3 shared completed seasons); behavior is described with sample size, never as a permanent trait of Grok or DeepSeek.", "Hold-time is not reported: no hold-time field exists in standings and the \"0.0 hours\" text in report prose is a placeholder, not a measurement. Profit factor is not archived and is omitted." ], "sourceFiles": [ { "path": "data/competitions/season-3.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a6dffdc96efb3d67157a251759daa1d6e16dc2fc707a3be4ae700aaeeb319055", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:7ca2c5facca3c839530f3bf248715e4ad079a78892b5369953309e83673189b5", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:87b708cdda57e85c9a8598a514c78badd8f84d23276e7c9e891415e106267212", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:e1d662bdd0bbcefe502c94632d09061e0112de0f22fafa49106bf00994fd22a0", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:5ca10635840cb176e4b27d5a8c3c6feb8665f9025285a84ad8b7dabc71219376", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a084e6be130ae109483e93322ecca7ac360b1d85c67f6af2fd4786780ab5a94f", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:728228a29807bf586499a014eb94d56aa79af91a44264f0ad5a7d3112c84d862", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:78731e67d124b248de2b896cc4f138f73751c20e3d9c6173436dda4af18542c7", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:cf62eb11aa53ba2b6b8d4088a9ded56eadb442caac06f7ed956b2f3d7ad3968b", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:4c729cc96be4e505fdb1eb1f58e109736180b80a886d0af79c5fc84055a81763", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:3f3a83589fb1165b4da34cf0db0a848c0ae93728fbfb101aae32623985bf3c90", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/deepseek-v3-2.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:de361e1db227bdb4068c9d1791c68a6e1b1d793b4ae386b757219cee83225405", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "deepseek-v3-2" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:355d8efd9bcf45c668b0b54aa9e8cacbfb73aea5ef4a06c42727c5c6fda6dc99", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:d86f23f814afb8c5834fa39f5916e92c14cb75fbd3524293216c0a058005261e", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:192cc557fe6b452fe334cf7dfd50b12aacb739f908e5d9576eb56bcdeade0ae6", "seasonSlug": "season-5" } ], "generatedAt": "2026-06-20T16:02:23.195Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:318d864fc2ea2fce14b0af47f6070a04955f3c9173d88165a6cb7a5b0e6c129b" }