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2.188210740982413, "averageReturnGapPct": 2.0094938768735235, "rankReversals": 2 }, "behavior": { "tradeCount": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 24, "familyBValue": 22 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 12, "familyBValue": 18 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 13, "familyBValue": 15 } ], "winRate": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 8.333333333333332, "familyBValue": 27.27272727272727 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 25, "familyBValue": 16.666666666666664 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 69.23076923076923, "familyBValue": 46.666666666666664 } ], "maxDrawdownPct": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 8.81504459807279, "familyBValue": 19.7209875243943 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 3.6438269719024268, "familyBValue": 7.336819824310839 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 11.686767838079946, "familyBValue": 7.272031100908443 } ], "directionMix": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 0, "familyBValue": 0.05555555555555555 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 0, "familyBValue": 0 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 0.07692307692307693, "familyBValue": 0.375 } ] }, "representativeDecisions": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "anthropic", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:37.581Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ADA", "reasoning": "Full bearish alignment 1w/1d/4h, composite 70. RSI(1d) 45.9 with weekly RSI at extremely oversold 22.8 but daily still has room. Positive funding favorable for shorts. Recent bounce from lows looks like a bear rally within downtrend.", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 1.9115958668197663, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "anthropic", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:37.581Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "UNI", "reasoning": "Full bearish alignment 1w/1d/4h, composite 70. RSI(1d) 41.4 still mid-range. Weekly RSI 28.7 deeply oversold but daily trend remains firmly bearish. Recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows on daily chart.", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -9.896688366827107, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:35.989Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ADA", "reasoning": "70/100 BEARISH with full -70 trend alignment (1w▼, 1d▼, 4h▼) and weekly/daily agreement", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 2.8673938002295927, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:01:24.176Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "XRP", "reasoning": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 both bearish (composite 70), meets all entry rules; 4h supplementary confirmation", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -7.223467109492276, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" } ], "reasoningExcerpts": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "anthropic", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:37.581Z", "asset": "ADA", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Full bearish alignment 1w/1d/4h, composite 70. RSI(1d) 45.9 with weekly RSI at extremely oversold 22.8 but daily still has room. Positive funding favorable for shorts. Recent bounce from lows looks like a bear rally within downtrend.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "anthropic", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:37.581Z", "asset": "UNI", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Full bearish alignment 1w/1d/4h, composite 70. RSI(1d) 41.4 still mid-range. Weekly RSI 28.7 deeply oversold but daily trend remains firmly bearish. Recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows on daily chart.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:35.989Z", "asset": "ADA", "action": "open_short", "quote": "70/100 BEARISH with full -70 trend alignment (1w▼, 1d▼, 4h▼) and weekly/daily agreement", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "xai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:01:24.176Z", "asset": "XRP", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly and daily EMA-26 both bearish (composite 70), meets all entry rules; 4h supplementary confirmation", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json" } ], "methodology": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "startDate": "2026-03-23", "endDate": "2026-04-26", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "BNB", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ADA", "AVAX", "LINK", "DOT", "MATIC", "UNI", "ATOM", "LTC", "ETC", "FIL", "APT", "ARB", "OP", "NEAR", "SUI", "AAVE", "PENGU", "HYPE", "PURR", "CRV", "SNX", "COMP", "SUSHI", "IMX", "STX", "INJ", "TIA", "SEI", "MANTA", "BLUR", "PENDLE", "ZORA" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "37 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "startDate": "2026-04-26", "endDate": "2026-05-23", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TAO" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "7 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] } ], "limitations": [ "returnPct includes unrealized P&L; realized and unrealized are reported separately per season (a season winner has previously carried negative realized P&L while leading on unrealized gains).", "Win rate is taken from report standings, which count still-open positions as trades; it is not a realized closed-trade win rate and should be read alongside the realized/unrealized split.", "Representative-decision outcomes are position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill. Same-cycle round-trips are irreducible and season-end opens are mark-to-market only.", "Cross-season comparison only: prompts, model versions, cadence, asset universe and market regimes changed between seasons — these are not one controlled experiment.", "Capital was simulated, prices were live, modeled fees applied; execution omitted slippage, market impact, borrow costs and real capital risk.", "Samples are short (3 shared completed seasons); behavior is described with sample size, never as a permanent trait of Claude or Grok.", "Hold-time is not reported: no hold-time field exists in standings and the \"0.0 hours\" text in report prose is a placeholder, not a measurement. Profit factor is not archived and is omitted." ], "sourceFiles": [ { "path": "data/competitions/season-3.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a6dffdc96efb3d67157a251759daa1d6e16dc2fc707a3be4ae700aaeeb319055", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:69deca0d87a8fdcce0de6211fc5cb17de62bcae3da54373f399d0a85a0f5bf1f", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "claude-opus-4-6" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:87b708cdda57e85c9a8598a514c78badd8f84d23276e7c9e891415e106267212", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:e1d662bdd0bbcefe502c94632d09061e0112de0f22fafa49106bf00994fd22a0", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:5ca10635840cb176e4b27d5a8c3c6feb8665f9025285a84ad8b7dabc71219376", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a084e6be130ae109483e93322ecca7ac360b1d85c67f6af2fd4786780ab5a94f", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:5b3970c9266dd7d1d8b4a34fa1354bc98d35e464387fdc77e596556632c90b35", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "claude-opus-4-6" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:78731e67d124b248de2b896cc4f138f73751c20e3d9c6173436dda4af18542c7", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:cf62eb11aa53ba2b6b8d4088a9ded56eadb442caac06f7ed956b2f3d7ad3968b", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:4c729cc96be4e505fdb1eb1f58e109736180b80a886d0af79c5fc84055a81763", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:3f3a83589fb1165b4da34cf0db0a848c0ae93728fbfb101aae32623985bf3c90", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/claude-opus-4-6.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:84f57a6fb4b2af2e5e5cbfd7db327c89e7876c25f7961350e1ea7a28fffaae65", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "claude-opus-4-6" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/grok-4-20.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:355d8efd9bcf45c668b0b54aa9e8cacbfb73aea5ef4a06c42727c5c6fda6dc99", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "grok-4-20" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:d86f23f814afb8c5834fa39f5916e92c14cb75fbd3524293216c0a058005261e", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:192cc557fe6b452fe334cf7dfd50b12aacb739f908e5d9576eb56bcdeade0ae6", "seasonSlug": "season-5" } ], "generatedAt": "2026-06-20T16:02:23.195Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:120fd7f2df443a81dfdeec02506978876d055833d0fea2b015d4ca653cb6343a" }