{ "schemaVersion": "provider-pair-v1", "snapshotThrough": "2026-06-20T16:02:23.195Z", "slug": "chatgpt-vs-kimi-for-trading", "status": "eligible", "holdReason": null, "primaryQuery": "ChatGPT vs Kimi for trading", "aliases": [ "kimi-vs-chatgpt-for-trading" ], "families": [ { "key": "openai", "family": "ChatGPT", "provider": "OpenAI", "routeSlot": "gpt-5-4", "versionsBySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "modelId": "gpt-5-4", "modelName": "GPT-5.4", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "modelId": "gpt-5-4", "modelName": "GPT-5.5", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "modelId": "gpt-5-4", "modelName": "GPT-5.5", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null } ] }, { "key": "kimi", "family": "Kimi", "provider": "Moonshot AI", "routeSlot": "kimi-k2-5", "versionsBySeason": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "modelId": "kimi-k2-5", "modelName": "Kimi K2.5", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "modelId": "kimi-k2-5", "modelName": "Kimi K2.6", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "modelId": "kimi-k2-5", "modelName": "Kimi K2.6", "versionExcluded": false, "versionExclusionReason": null } ] } ], "sharedCompletedSeasons": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "seasonName": "Season 3", "startDate": "2026-03-23", "endDate": "2026-04-26", "durationDays": 34, "fieldSize": 9, "assetUniverseLabel": "37 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "gpt-5-4", "modelName": "GPT-5.4", "rank": 4, "returnPct": -5.003541662244224, "comparabilityReturnPct": -5.003541662244224, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 9.68881583663293, "realizedPnL": -460.6552835122828, "unrealizedPnL": -39.698882712139664, "totalPnL": -500.35416622442244, "totalTrades": 17, "winRate": 23.52941176470588, "maxDrawdownPct": 9.68881583663293 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "kimi-k2-5", "modelName": "Kimi K2.5", "rank": 5, "returnPct": -6.352387280990733, "comparabilityReturnPct": -6.352387280990733, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 10.205664825697385, "realizedPnL": -551.6103964138684, "unrealizedPnL": -83.6283316852049, "totalPnL": -635.2387280990733, "totalTrades": 23, "winRate": 26.08695652173913, "maxDrawdownPct": 10.205664825697385 }, "winner": "A", "returnGapPct": 1.348845618746509 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "seasonName": "Season 4", "startDate": "2026-04-26", "endDate": "2026-05-23", "durationDays": 27, "fieldSize": 9, "assetUniverseLabel": "7 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "gpt-5-4", "modelName": "GPT-5.5", "rank": 6, "returnPct": 3.6907894034985107, "comparabilityReturnPct": 3.6907894034985107, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 2.3243420241344586, "realizedPnL": 331.4386162369034, "unrealizedPnL": 37.640324112947724, "totalPnL": 369.0789403498511, "totalTrades": 16, "winRate": 31.25, "maxDrawdownPct": 2.3243420241344586 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "kimi-k2-5", "modelName": "Kimi K2.6", "rank": 5, "returnPct": 4.1310533097885305, "comparabilityReturnPct": 4.1310533097885305, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 4.178617983474132, "realizedPnL": 269.81219098620994, "unrealizedPnL": 143.29313999264315, "totalPnL": 413.1053309788531, "totalTrades": 18, "winRate": 27.77777777777778, "maxDrawdownPct": 4.178617983474132 }, "winner": "B", "returnGapPct": -0.44026390629001977 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "seasonName": "Season 5", "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "durationDays": 28, "fieldSize": 10, "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "familyA": { "modelId": "gpt-5-4", "modelName": "GPT-5.5", "rank": 8, "returnPct": 0.375860948963018, "comparabilityReturnPct": 0.375860948963018, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 11.405486351823745, "realizedPnL": -775.5446938173292, "unrealizedPnL": 813.130788713631, "totalPnL": 37.5860948963018, "totalTrades": 18, "winRate": 44.44444444444444, "maxDrawdownPct": 11.405486351823745 }, "familyB": { "modelId": "kimi-k2-5", "modelName": "Kimi K2.6", "rank": 4, "returnPct": 5.783199818412322, "comparabilityReturnPct": 5.783199818412322, "comparabilityBasis": "report-standings", "comparabilityMaxDrawdownPct": 10.602995061720941, "realizedPnL": -478.4311227739147, "unrealizedPnL": 1056.751104615147, "totalPnL": 578.3199818412322, "totalTrades": 14, "winRate": 50, "maxDrawdownPct": 10.602995061720941 }, "winner": "B", "returnGapPct": -5.407338869449304 } ], "headToHead": { "seasonsPlayed": 3, "familyAWins": 1, "familyBWins": 2, "ties": 0, "medianReturnGapPct": -0.44026390629001977, "averageReturnGapPct": -1.499585718997605, "rankReversals": 1 }, "behavior": { "tradeCount": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 17, "familyBValue": 23 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 16, "familyBValue": 18 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 18, "familyBValue": 14 } ], "winRate": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 23.52941176470588, "familyBValue": 26.08695652173913 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 31.25, "familyBValue": 27.77777777777778 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 44.44444444444444, "familyBValue": 50 } ], "maxDrawdownPct": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 9.68881583663293, "familyBValue": 10.205664825697385 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 2.3243420241344586, "familyBValue": 4.178617983474132 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 11.405486351823745, "familyBValue": 10.602995061720941 } ], "directionMix": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "familyAValue": 0, "familyBValue": 0.045454545454545456 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "familyAValue": 0.17391304347826086, "familyBValue": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "familyAValue": 0.2777777777777778, "familyBValue": 0.2962962962962963 } ] }, "representativeDecisions": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "openai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:23.618Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "BNB", "reasoning": "Weekly, daily, and 4h are all below EMA-26, giving full bearish trend alignment with a 70 composite score. Daily RSI near 46 is not stretched, which supports continuation rather than a crowded rebound setup.", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 15.498155937097636, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "openai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:23.618Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "ARB", "reasoning": "ARB is one of the cleaner bearish continuation candidates with weekly and daily both below EMA-26 and a 70 composite score. Daily RSI at 39.1 is closer to an ideal bear-rally exhaustion zone, improving short entry quality versus some peers.", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -30.09672304439755, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "kimi", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-25T16:05:47.236Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "DOT", "reasoning": "Maximum bearish trend score (-70) with perfect weekly/daily/4h alignment; composite 70/100. Strong downtrend continuation signal.", "outcome": "gain", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": 48.8298648648647, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "kimi", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:03:41.411Z", "action": "open_short", "asset": "XRP", "reasoning": "Strong trend alignment with weekly and daily both bearish. Despite slight negative funding (-0.0005%), the clean breakdown from $1.55 to $1.40 with lower highs validates the short. Weekly RSI at 29 suggests potential for further downside before extreme oversold.", "outcome": "loss", "outcomeBasis": "Position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill.", "unrealizedPnlAtOpen": 0, "unrealizedPnlNextCycle": -7.170880651382049, "selectionRule": "First attributable gain and first attributable loss per family, ordered by (season number, cycle timestamp, asset, action); when neither is attributable, the first decision in that order is used and its reconstructed outcome (flat or unattributable) is recorded as-is.", "reconstructed": true, "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json" } ], "reasoningExcerpts": [ { "family": "A", "familyKey": "openai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:23.618Z", "asset": "BNB", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Weekly, daily, and 4h are all below EMA-26, giving full bearish trend alignment with a 70 composite score. Daily RSI near 46 is not stretched, which supports continuation rather than a crowded rebound setup.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json" }, { "family": "A", "familyKey": "openai", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-23T16:01:23.618Z", "asset": "ARB", "action": "open_short", "quote": "ARB is one of the cleaner bearish continuation candidates with weekly and daily both below EMA-26 and a 70 composite score. Daily RSI at 39.1 is closer to an ideal bear-rally exhaustion zone, improving short entry quality versus some peers.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "kimi", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-25T16:05:47.236Z", "asset": "DOT", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Maximum bearish trend score (-70) with perfect weekly/daily/4h alignment; composite 70/100. Strong downtrend continuation signal.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json" }, { "family": "B", "familyKey": "kimi", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "cycleTimestamp": "2026-03-24T16:03:41.411Z", "asset": "XRP", "action": "open_short", "quote": "Strong trend alignment with weekly and daily both bearish. Despite slight negative funding (-0.0005%), the clean breakdown from $1.55 to $1.40 with lower highs validates the short. Weekly RSI at 29 suggests potential for further downside before extreme oversold.", "sourceFile": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json" } ], "methodology": [ { "seasonSlug": "season-3", "seasonNumber": 3, "startDate": "2026-03-23", "endDate": "2026-04-26", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "BNB", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ADA", "AVAX", "LINK", "DOT", "MATIC", "UNI", "ATOM", "LTC", "ETC", "FIL", "APT", "ARB", "OP", "NEAR", "SUI", "AAVE", "PENGU", "HYPE", "PURR", "CRV", "SNX", "COMP", "SUSHI", "IMX", "STX", "INJ", "TIA", "SEI", "MANTA", "BLUR", "PENDLE", "ZORA" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "37 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-4", "seasonNumber": 4, "startDate": "2026-04-26", "endDate": "2026-05-23", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TAO" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "7 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] }, { "seasonSlug": "season-5", "seasonNumber": 5, "startDate": "2026-05-23", "endDate": "2026-06-20", "startingCapital": 10000, "feePercent": 0.1, "cadenceLabel": "daily (24h cycle)", "assetUniverse": [ "ETH", "SOL", "XRP", "DOGE", "ZEC", "BNB", "TON", "SUI", "TRX", "PEPE" ], "assetUniverseLabel": "10 crypto assets", "shortSellingAllowed": true, "leverageAllowed": false, "stopLossRequired": true, "maxPositions": 10, "finalizationBasis": "retained-open-exposure", "eraNotes": [] } ], "limitations": [ "returnPct includes unrealized P&L; realized and unrealized are reported separately per season (a season winner has previously carried negative realized P&L while leading on unrealized gains).", "Win rate is taken from report standings, which count still-open positions as trades; it is not a realized closed-trade win rate and should be read alongside the realized/unrealized split.", "Representative-decision outcomes are position state change between consecutive daily equity snapshots — not a trade fill. Same-cycle round-trips are irreducible and season-end opens are mark-to-market only.", "Cross-season comparison only: prompts, model versions, cadence, asset universe and market regimes changed between seasons — these are not one controlled experiment.", "Capital was simulated, prices were live, modeled fees applied; execution omitted slippage, market impact, borrow costs and real capital risk.", "Samples are short (3 shared completed seasons); behavior is described with sample size, never as a permanent trait of ChatGPT or Kimi.", "Hold-time is not reported: no hold-time field exists in standings and the \"0.0 hours\" text in report prose is a placeholder, not a measurement. Profit factor is not archived and is omitted." ], "sourceFiles": [ { "path": "data/competitions/season-3.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a6dffdc96efb3d67157a251759daa1d6e16dc2fc707a3be4ae700aaeeb319055", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:1d9058af51bda6610d297b072b355cf591ac39a13dfa5d33cfe12890649698c8", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "gpt-5-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:10e7f0bb4646abc63da106d2c993d99c33f422c2e4a1cc727acc0061fb3285c5", "seasonSlug": "season-3", "modelId": "kimi-k2-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:e1d662bdd0bbcefe502c94632d09061e0112de0f22fafa49106bf00994fd22a0", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-3/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:5ca10635840cb176e4b27d5a8c3c6feb8665f9025285a84ad8b7dabc71219376", "seasonSlug": "season-3" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:a084e6be130ae109483e93322ecca7ac360b1d85c67f6af2fd4786780ab5a94f", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:732e757c1bfc0c773ea7f4679f46d55b9104076a47034a4cb4c16d1f14c4ba85", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "gpt-5-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:9ed19b4df3e71a20e325efdf5566174ca273d57a2081b9dbbdd609e985dda994", "seasonSlug": "season-4", "modelId": "kimi-k2-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:cf62eb11aa53ba2b6b8d4088a9ded56eadb442caac06f7ed956b2f3d7ad3968b", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-4/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:4c729cc96be4e505fdb1eb1f58e109736180b80a886d0af79c5fc84055a81763", "seasonSlug": "season-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5.json", "role": "season-metadata", "sha256": "sha256:3f3a83589fb1165b4da34cf0db0a848c0ae93728fbfb101aae32623985bf3c90", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/gpt-5-4.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:2b86caf9de90aeec47fa2290f5f1a2273ce32d0ed8277da40da58de747155edb", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "gpt-5-4" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/decision-history/kimi-k2-5.json", "role": "decision-history", "sha256": "sha256:de77b2ad2ff29c5562f73eff2f08c4874cff83b52bf0a2a754c14a76916b68b1", "seasonSlug": "season-5", "modelId": "kimi-k2-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/equity-history.json", "role": "equity-history", "sha256": "sha256:d86f23f814afb8c5834fa39f5916e92c14cb75fbd3524293216c0a058005261e", "seasonSlug": "season-5" }, { "path": "data/competitions/season-5/report.json", "role": "report", "sha256": "sha256:192cc557fe6b452fe334cf7dfd50b12aacb739f908e5d9576eb56bcdeade0ae6", "seasonSlug": "season-5" } ], "generatedAt": "2026-06-20T16:02:23.195Z", "sourceHash": "sha256:ffccfb75b394d36db6274e521d481b85f83e6bbe6533518fd073f7657701dccb" }