{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "tier": "archive",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-07T17:36:22.584Z",
  "dataSnapshotTime": "2026-07-18T05:32:03.854Z",
  "sourceHash": "sha256:d0a038c66b325a2ddbdf62b17fc6c27301be3e67ede50c7eba1c2ff6672b56bd",
  "sourceFiles": [
    "data/backfill/season-1/trading-state.json",
    "data/competitions/season-0/equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-0/trades.json",
    "data/competitions/season-1/equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-2/active-equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-2/trading-state.json",
    "data/competitions/season-3/equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-4/equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-5/equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-6/equity-history.json",
    "data/competitions/season-6/trading-state.json"
  ],
  "seasonsIncluded": [
    "season-0",
    "season-1",
    "season-2",
    "season-3",
    "season-4",
    "season-5",
    "season-6"
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "assetClassSource": "src/config/universe.ts (current universe) plus an explicit retired-symbol table; an unclassifiable symbol fails the run rather than defaulting to a class.",
    "eraSource": "each season's own rules.cycleIntervalMs from its archive: below 24h is the fast-cycle era, 24h or more is the daily investor era. No season numbers are hardcoded.",
    "closedLegDefinition": "a closed leg is one trade carrying a non-null realizedPnL, FIFO-paired with the earliest unclosed opening trade for the same competitor and symbol, WITHIN ONE SEASON. Era rows concatenate per-season legs; capital resets at a season boundary and open positions are liquidated into the close-out, so a cross-season pairing describes a position that never existed. A realizing trade with no surviving open is kept, counted, and flagged unmatched.",
    "winRateBasis": "closed_legs_realized_pnl",
    "driftBaselineDummy": "class_benchmark_long",
    "driftBaselineDefinition": "the dummy buys and holds the class benchmark (SPY for equities, BTC for crypto) across each closed leg's own entry-to-exit window and is correct when that benchmark rose. The model rate quoted beside it is recomputed on exactly the legs the dummy could be scored on. Legs whose window has no benchmark quote and legs whose window is FLAT (both ends on the same quote) are counted separately: a flat window is the benchmark not moving, not a data gap.",
    "driftBaselineTest": "exact McNemar on the discordant pairs (a two-sided exact binomial on b vs b+c, p=0.5). The model and the dummy are scored on the SAME windows, so their outcomes are paired; a one-sample binomial fed the dummy’s own observed rate in as p0, which treats a point estimate as a known parameter and understates uncertainty in the baseline. pValueVsCoin is unaffected - that one IS a one-sample test against a fixed 0.5.",
    "pValueFloor": 0.000001,
    "pValueFloorNote": "p-values are never emitted as 0. Anything below the floor is clamped to it and flagged with the matching ...IsFloor field, because a printed \"p = 0\" reads as certainty rather than as \"below the resolution this artifact reports\".",
    "exposureDefinition": "per cycle, the sum of |size x mark price| over every scoped model position, split by asset class, expressed as a share of invested capital and of total equity."
  },
  "caveats": [
    "Every win rate here is a CLOSED-LEG realized win rate (basis: closed_legs_realized_pnl). It is not the leaderboard win rate, which also counts still-open positions. Do not claim a direction between the two - state the basis and stop.",
    "Realized P&L is a FLOOR, not a total, for any season flagged tradesPartial: its source trade log survived only as a partial snapshot.",
    "Seasons in the trade-gap set carry null trade counts. Null is an absence; rendering it as 0 asserts a measurement that was never taken.",
    "Trade counts are NOT comparable across the era boundary: the fast-cycle era ran several cycles a day and the daily investor era runs one. Compare within an era, or compare shares rather than counts.",
    "The exposure series is a deterministic accounting identity, not an inference. It needs no significance test and none is reported for it. Its share statistics are defined ONLY on nCyclesWithCapital; quoting a range against nCyclesTotal claims a share for cycles that held nothing.",
    "Rows in symbols[] are INDEPENDENTLY rounded to cents, so they do not add up to the class realizedPnL, which rounds the unrounded sum. Never sum symbols[] in prose - quote the class total, which is the only figure that is the total.",
    "Hold time is not recoverable from the archived trade records beyond the FIFO-matched entry-to-exit window, and per-decision confidence is not persisted at all."
  ],
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    {
      "seasonSlug": "season-0",
      "seasonNumber": 0,
      "startDate": "2026-01-10",
      "endDate": "2026-01-11",
      "cycleIntervalMs": 3600000,
      "eraId": "intraday",
      "tradeLogRecoverable": true,
      "tradesPartial": false,
      "universe": {
        "tradeableSymbols": 5,
        "byClass": [
          {
            "assetClass": "crypto",
            "symbols": 5
          },
          {
            "assetClass": "equity",
            "symbols": 0
          }
        ],
        "classesTradedOutsideRecordedUniverse": []
      },
      "totalTrades": 120,
      "byClass": [
        {
          "assetClass": "crypto",
          "trades": 120,
          "closedLegs": 55,
          "realizedPnL": 133.92,
          "realizedPnLIsFloor": false,
          "distinctSymbols": 5,
          "distinctModelsTraded": 4,
          "tradeSharePct": 100,
          "symbols": [
            {
              "symbol": "SOL",
              "trades": 35,
              "closedLegs": 15,
              "realizedPnL": -13.06,
              "distinctModels": 4
            },
            {
              "symbol": "BNB",
              "trades": 32,
              "closedLegs": 13,
              "realizedPnL": 57.95,
              "distinctModels": 3
            },
            {
              "symbol": "ETH",
              "trades": 28,
              "closedLegs": 15,
              "realizedPnL": 95.27,
              "distinctModels": 4
            },
            {
              "symbol": "DOGE",
              "trades": 18,
              "closedLegs": 8,
              "realizedPnL": -9.93,
              "distinctModels": 3
            },
            {
              "symbol": "XRP",
              "trades": 7,
              "closedLegs": 4,
              "realizedPnL": 3.69,
              "distinctModels": 2
            }
          ],
          "winRate": {
            "basis": "closed_legs_realized_pnl",
            "nClosedLegs": 55,
            "nWinningLegs": 24,
            "winRatePct": 43.6,
            "pValueVsCoin": 0.418754,
            "pValueVsCoinIsFloor": false,
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "class_benchmark_long",
              "benchmarkSymbol": "BTC",
              "distinctBenchmarkPrices": 0,
              "test": "exact_mcnemar",
              "nExcludedUnmatchedLeg": 11,
              "nExcludedNoBenchmarkPrice": 44,
              "nExcludedFlatBenchmark": 0,
              "nEvaluated": 0,
              "nDummyCorrect": 0,
              "dummyHitRatePct": null,
              "nModelCorrectOnEvaluatedWindows": 0,
              "modelHitRatePctOnEvaluatedWindows": null,
              "modelMinusDummyPctPoints": null,
              "nDiscordantModelOnly": 0,
              "nDiscordantDummyOnly": 0,
              "pValueVsDummy": null,
              "pValueVsDummyIsFloor": false,
              "pValueWithheldReason": "no_evaluated_windows"
            }
          },
          "seasonContributions": null
        },
        {
          "assetClass": "equity",
          "trades": 0,
          "closedLegs": 0,
          "realizedPnL": 0,
          "realizedPnLIsFloor": false,
          "distinctSymbols": 0,
          "distinctModelsTraded": 0,
          "tradeSharePct": 0,
          "symbols": [],
          "winRate": {
            "basis": "closed_legs_realized_pnl",
            "nClosedLegs": 0,
            "nWinningLegs": 0,
            "winRatePct": null,
            "pValueVsCoin": null,
            "pValueVsCoinIsFloor": false,
            "driftBaseline": {
              "dummy": "class_benchmark_long",
              "benchmarkSymbol": "SPY",
              "distinctBenchmarkPrices": 0,
              "test": "exact_mcnemar",
              "nExcludedUnmatchedLeg": 0,
              "nExcludedNoBenchmarkPrice": 0,
              "nExcludedFlatBenchmark": 0,
              "nEvaluated": 0,
              "nDummyCorrect": 0,
              "dummyHitRatePct": null,
              "nModelCorrectOnEvaluatedWindows": 0,
              "modelHitRatePctOnEvaluatedWindows": null,
              "modelMinusDummyPctPoints": null,
              "nDiscordantModelOnly": 0,
              "nDiscordantDummyOnly": 0,
              "pValueVsDummy": null,
              "pValueVsDummyIsFloor": false,
              "pValueWithheldReason": "no_evaluated_windows"
            }
          },
          "seasonContributions": null
        }
      ],
      "perModel": [
        {
          "competitorId": "anthropic",
          "modelName": "Claude Haiku 4.5",
          "names": [
            {
              "seasonSlug": "season-0",
              "modelName": "Claude Haiku 4.5",
              "source": "season_archive"
            }
          ],
          "trades": 42,
          "byClass": [
            {
              "assetClass": "crypto",
              "trades": 42,
              "closedLegs": 19,
              "realizedPnL": -8.95,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 100
            },
            {
              "assetClass": "equity",
              "trades": 0,
              "closedLegs": 0,
              "realizedPnL": 0,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 0
            }
          ],
          "equitySharePctOfTrades": 0
        },
        {
          "competitorId": "google",
          "modelName": "Gemini 3.0 Flash",
          "names": [
            {
              "seasonSlug": "season-0",
              "modelName": "Gemini 3.0 Flash",
              "source": "season_archive"
            }
          ],
          "trades": 17,
          "byClass": [
            {
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              "closedLegs": 8,
              "realizedPnL": 5.67,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 100
            },
            {
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              "closedLegs": 0,
              "realizedPnL": 0,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 0
            }
          ],
          "equitySharePctOfTrades": 0
        },
        {
          "competitorId": "openai",
          "modelName": "GPT-5 Mini",
          "names": [
            {
              "seasonSlug": "season-0",
              "modelName": "GPT-5 Mini",
              "source": "season_archive"
            }
          ],
          "trades": 41,
          "byClass": [
            {
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              "closedLegs": 20,
              "realizedPnL": 40.36,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 100
            },
            {
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              "closedLegs": 0,
              "realizedPnL": 0,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 0
            }
          ],
          "equitySharePctOfTrades": 0
        },
        {
          "competitorId": "xai",
          "modelName": "Grok 4-1 Fast",
          "names": [
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              "modelName": "Grok 4-1 Fast",
              "source": "season_archive"
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          "byClass": [
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              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 100
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              "realizedPnL": 0,
              "sharePctOfModelTrades": 0
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            "dateIso": "2026-01-10T16:16:47.556Z",
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            "cycleNumber": 27,
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          "equitySharePctOfInvestedFirst": 0,
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      "partialSourceSeasons": [
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      "windowStartDate": "2026-01-10",
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            },
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            "driftBaseline": {
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              "test": "exact_mcnemar",
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              "nExcludedFlatBenchmark": 28,
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